I'm going through the Grand Prix standings after the fourth of the six events to look at the potential finalists. I'm just going to cover the singles for now.
MEN:[/u]
1. Patrick Chan, CAN -- 26 pts. (3rd, 1st)
2. Evan Lysacek, USA -- 26 pts. (2nd, 2nd)
3. Kevin van der Perren, BEL -- 22 pts. (2nd, 4th)
4. Alban Preaubert, FRA -- 18 pts. (5th, 3rd)
5. Johnny Weir, USA -- 15 pts. (1st, Cup of Russia to come)
6. Daisuke Takahashi, JPN -- 15 pts. (1st, NHK Trophy to come)
...
11. Jeffrey Buttle, CAN -- 11 pts. (3, Cup of Russia to come)
12. Stephane Lambiel, SUI -- 11 pts. (3, Cup of Russian to come)
...
14. Sergei Davydov, BLR -- 9 pts. (NHK Trophy to come)
Brian Joubert of France won Skate Canada but had to withdraw from Trophee Eric Bompard meaning that he will not get a spot in the final. Sergei Voronov of Russia was second at TEB, but he didn't qualify for a second event and was not selected by the Russian federation to go to Cup of Russia, so he's out.
Patrick Chan and Evan Lysacek are really the only ones who are locks at this point. If Jeffrey Buttle and Stephane Lambiel can go first and second in either order over Johnny Weir at Cup of Russia, then they'll make the final. If either one of them places third, they'll be ranked behind Kevin van der Perren because his second place finish at Skate Canada will break the tie over their two third place finishes, likely putting them out of the final unless Weir or Takahashi totally have a breakdown at their second event. Sergei Davydov has a very small chance of getting into the final if he places second at the NHK Trophy, but that would tie him with van der Perren's GP point standings to which they'd have to look at the total of their scores at each competition--van der Perren's total is 407.3 whereas Davydov's score at his first competition was only 181.75--well less than half, so unless he has a spectacular competition, even with a second place finish he has very little chance of winning that tie breaker.
LADIES:[/u]
1. Mao Asada, JPN -- 30 pts. (1st, 1st)
2. Kimmie Meissner, USA -- 28 pts. (1st, 2nd)
3. Caroline Zhang, USA -- 24 pts. (3rd, 2nd)
4. Ashley Wagner, USA -- 18 pts. (5th, 3rd)
5. Emily Hughes, USA -- 18 pts. (4th, 4th)
6. Yu-Na Kim, KOR -- 15 pts. (1st, Cup of Russia to come)
...
8. Yukari Nakano, JPN -- 13 pts. (2nd, Cup of Russia to come)
9. Miki Ando, JPN -- 13 pts. (2nd, NHK Trophy to come)
10. Joannie Rochette, CAN -- 11 pts. (3rd, Cup of Russia to come)
11. Carolina Kostner, ITA -- 11 pts. (3rd, NHK Trophy to come)
12. Sarah Meier, SUI -- 9 pts. (4th, NHK Trophy to come)
13. Fumie Suguri, JPN -- 9 pts. (4th, Cup of Russia to come)
Mao Asada and Kimmie Meissner are locks with this is Meissner's first year to earn herself a berth to the final. Things look a little more clean cut here on the ladies' side at this point. Yu-Na Kim, Miki Ando, and Yukari Nakano are all in a great position to make the final. To outrank Caroline Zhang, Kim only needs to place fourth at Cup of Russia, and Ando and Nakano each need to only place second. If either of the latter two place third, they're scores from their first events are each higher than half of Zhang's overall total, meaning that they're currently at an advantage to win that tie breaker.
Joannie Rochette's total score at Skate Canada was only about a point behind Yukari Nakano's, so it's not unrealistic to think Rochette could defeat Nakano at Cup of Russia. If Rochette could do that, placing at least 2nd, she could get into the final since her score from Skate Canada is more than half of Zhang's total scores, whereas Carolina Kostner's score is well less than half of Zhang's, so if Kostner places 2nd at NHK Trophy, she'll have to make up that difference between Zhang's total scores and her own to break that tie, which could be well within her capabilities if she just doesn't screw it up.
Damn.