huntergrayson
Guest
Sept 22, 2024 8:26:40 GMT -4
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Post by huntergrayson on Jan 14, 2008 2:03:01 GMT -4
Diving Bell is ineligible for foreign film, but if anything, I think that ineligibility *plus* the Globes showing could mean it gets more nominations in other categories.
I completely forgot about Into the Wild, though. My BF lent me a screener that I've been meaning to watch. (He threw out his SAG ballot, though -- boo.) Juno is completely worthy of its spot, but I also think the counter-programming helps.
A really great, pretty unpredictable year, in all. I'm gonna cry if there's no Oscars. I've already started planning the party menu in my head (There Will Be Blood & Sand, Unprotected Sex on the Beach, No Country for Old Fashioneds, etc).
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Deleted
Posts: 0
Sept 22, 2024 8:26:40 GMT -4
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2008 6:48:40 GMT -4
Aww, I would have loved to see winners like Cotillard and Bardem getting up on stage and accepting their awards. Ah well...
Oscar noms will be all over the place I guess.
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Post by Atreides on Jan 14, 2008 12:09:13 GMT -4
I think Cate Blanchett will take the fifth lead actress spot for Elizabeth: TGA. She got the GG and SAG nom (and most likely will get a BAFTA nom for what it's worth). The Academy likes her a lot (4 nominations and a win in less than ten years) and she managed to escape the bad reviews of the movie itself.
I don't want Julian Schnabel to get a nomination simply because I can't stand him. I remember when he showed up a few years ago (either for Pollock or Basquiat) and he came off as the biggest, most pretentious asshole you've ever met.
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Deleted
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Sept 22, 2024 8:26:40 GMT -4
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2008 12:10:55 GMT -4
Wow! The Globes were crazy (too bad they didn't get publicized). I don't know what the wins for Sweeney Todd and Atonement mean to the Oscar race because I see those two films (along with a few more) fighting in that crazy fifth spot cagefight that Hunter Grayson mentioned. It does show, imo, that those films have more support that one would think at this stage in the game, but I think that the Globes tend to skew somewhat British and, of course, towards STARS, so a big star vehicle like Sweeney Todd and a prestige Brit picture like Atonement winning are not exactly surprises where the GGs are concerned. However, it does look like Sweeney and Atonement might have had more traction than one might have thought. I know the results of the Globes don't change the Oscar nominees but it is an interesting development that two films considered by many to be out of the race won the top prizes at the Globes. Interesting...
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Deleted
Posts: 0
Sept 22, 2024 8:26:40 GMT -4
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2008 17:02:10 GMT -4
Atonement didn't get nominated by the PGA's either. I don't think it has much traction for the Oscars. It might get a token nomination, but I wouldn't be surprised if it got left out entirely. So far, it's been ignored by all the guilds except for cinematography. I liked Sweeney Todd, but I doubt that it will get a nomination at all, sadly. I so wanted it to be Burton's year. So far, I think the biggest locks for best picture are There will be Blood, Not country for old men, and Michael Clayton (even though most people who saw it said it was boring). The last two spots are what is in contention and there are a lot of films that could fill them.
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Post by Atreides on Jan 14, 2008 20:46:50 GMT -4
I'm looking forward to the inevitable surprise nominees. I'd like to see Hal Holbrook from Into the Wild get nominated. He was amazing.
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Deleted
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Sept 22, 2024 8:26:40 GMT -4
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2008 21:11:35 GMT -4
Yes, I guess once again the nominees will be more interesting than the eventual winners because I don't see Day-Lewis and Christie losing anymore now. Supporting Actor is still between Affleck and Bardem with Bardem having better chances since his film's very likely to score some big noms and wins whereas Casey would be his film's only nom (ok, that doesn't say much but NCFOM will be huge on Oscar night and they'll be likely to award one of the film's performances) . Despite Blanchett winning last night I think that Amy Ryan will win Supporting Actress. The SAGs should tell us more I think.
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aibohphobia
Blueblood
Posts: 1,341
Jan 29, 2006 20:23:45 GMT -4
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Post by aibohphobia on Jan 14, 2008 23:59:02 GMT -4
Yes, I guess once again the nominees will be more interesting than the eventual winners because I don't see Day-Lewis and Christie losing anymore now. Although it might be boring if she wins sort of like how predictable it was that Helen Mirren won last year, I do hope that Julie Christie ends up winning. Although I would be happy with Ellen Page too; although, I think if there's an upset it will be from Cotillard not Page. I agree. I should have kept that in mind too when I was predicting that Eddie Murphy would win along with Jennifer Hudson. Among other factors, I should have know since Dreamgirls didn't get a Best Picture nomination that they wouldn't honor it with two acting awards of the night especially when Little Miss Sunshine was up for Best Picture and was the favorite or at least somewhat of a favorite considering that last year was a weird year in that any of the five films could have conceivably took home Best Picture since there wasn't a runaway winner like there has been this year with No Country for Old Men. There Will Be Blood or Juno could upset, but it's doubtful since they'll figure Original Screenplay will be enough for the latter and Best Actor for the former. I think the Best Director race will be the most interesting of the big awards since I could see maybe a split happening like at the Globes. Probably not, but for some reason I could see them wanting to honor Julian Schnabel or Paul Thomas Anderson since their movies won't be getting the big prize of the night. Yes, the Globes love Blanchett, so that wasn't a surprise. I don't think she'll win another supporting Oscar so soon since she's thought of more as a leading actress than a supporting one, but I don't know who they'll go with. I have a feeling that while Amy Ryan may have swept the critics awards, someone else will win. Right now I'm getting a feeling that Tilda Swinton may win here since she's so respected in the industry, and Michael Clayton will most likely lose everywhere else. Or they might go with Catherine Keener or Ruby Dee if they want to go the sort of career Oscar route since they won't be able to do that in the supporting actor category for a change. If there's a surprise nomination like Jennifer Garner, I think that even the surprise person may have a good chance too like Marcia Gay Harden did when she won since she didn't get a Globe or SAG nomination. ETA: The BAFTA nominations are out. I don't really think these change too much; although maybe it will help Atonement get that Best Picture nomination after all since there is some overlap between the Academy Awards' and the BAFTA's membership. The one disappointing thing though is that I think Cate Blanchett is most likely going to get that fifth spot in Best Actress that has been up for grabs with her, Adams, Carter, Knightley, and Linney all fighting it out since she has the most precursors, and the other women either never had enough buzz or have lost it by this point in the race. I usually love Blanchett's work, but I'm not happy with her being a double nominee in a year where there were plenty of strong leading women roles for once, and while she may be the best thing in her film, she didn't do anything groundbreaking, imo, that she didn't do in the first film.
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Deleted
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Sept 22, 2024 8:26:40 GMT -4
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2008 12:01:06 GMT -4
Newsweek's Oscar roundtable starring Ellen Page, George Clooney, Angelina Jolie, Daniel Day-Lewis, Marion Cotillard and James McAvoy. What a shame that James seems to be the least likely of this bunch to get a nom at this point with Atonement being completely shut out now. But he's easily the most charming and interesting in this slightly awkward round. Love him
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Post by Atreides on Jan 19, 2008 13:40:19 GMT -4
Transformers didn't get nominated for a BAFTA Best Visual Effects but Spider-Man 3 did? WTF?
OTOH, it's off to Merry Olde Englande for you, diablocody! Congrats!
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