And The Oscar Goes To......

[aibohphobia]

Jan 26, 2009 0:09:48 GMT -4 Binky said:

The Oscars supporting Actress will be interesting. Winslet won the category at the Critic's Choice Awards, the Globes, and the SAGs with "The Reader". So whoever wins at the Oscars won't have won any of the major three prior to.

Yes, I don't want to say that it's the first time it's ever happened because I guess Marcia Gay Harden managed to win without even being nominated for a Globe and a SAG, but ever since the awards have moved up to February and every other award show also moved up, it seems like more sweeps happen because all the other award shows want to predict who will win the Academy Award, I guess. It's refreshing that did not happen this year. I think it might go to Penelope Cruz because she picked up the most critic awards and was the frontrunner until Kate Winslet started being nominated in supporting, and it would be a cute moment to see her receive her Oscar from her boyfriend. On the other hand though, Amy Ryan and Virginia Madsen swept up the critics awards too, but failed to miss out on the other big prizes too. So if they want to spread the love around to Doubt or perhaps give The Curious Case of Benjamin Button at least one major award and not some technical awards, Viola Davis or Taraji P. Henson could threaten. I don't really feel that Amy Adams has a chance. Marisa Tomeii probably doesn't have one either; although her first win surprised a lot of people, but if they want to award The Wrestler, Best Actor is definitely where they will go.

Further, aside from Best Supporting Actress, I think Best Actor is the other major race to watch since both Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke seem like they could win right now. Penn swept up most of the critics awards, and won the SAG. His film also has more nominations which theoretically means that they liked it more than The Wrestler which only got two nominations. However, they could decide just to give Milk, a screenplay win, and spread the love elsewhere. Rourke has an incredible comeback story, once in a lifetime role for him, and Globe win, but he's also Mickey Rourke which could be held against him.

As for the other two acting races, I think Kate Winslet still has it sewn up. The SAG Awards are sometimes not helpful as a precursor because they haven't been out as long as the other awards which means that they're still playing catch up sometimes in trying to award people who have never won in a certain category before. Last year, Julie Christie likely won over Marion Cotillard here because Christie is such a legend, and she had never won SAG before. I think that this was the case with Meryl Streep this year because she had never won an individual film SAG before, while Winslet had, and they got lucky this year with being able to honor both on the same night. This could be what happened with Sean Penn too since he lost the SAG to Johnny Depp the year Penn won the Oscar, but with the Best Actor category it's hard to say until the winner is revealed. With Streep I don't think she's coming across as being more due than Winslet which always hurts her because they figure that she'll keep racking up record nominations and for now that's reward enough, and Winslet also has being the only Best Actress candidate in a Best Picture nominee. The pattern for this decade seems to be that every other year the Best Actress candidate is the someone from a Best Picture nominee, and this year is one of those Best Picture years.

2000
Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich - BP Nominee
Halle Berry, Monster's Ball
Nicole Kidman, The Hours - BP Nominee
Charlize Theron, Monster
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby - BP Nominee
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Helen Mirren, The Queen - BP Nominee
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose

Also with the exception of Hilary Swank, all of the winners were first time winners, and some of them like Roberts, Berry, Theron, and Cotillard had their closest competition from an older actress who had already won an Oscar before.

[Deleted]

I've seen all of the best picture nominees now. I'm a little conflicted. However, to quote the king, Mr. Roger Ebert, "Of the five nominees, "Milk" was far and away my personal leader ... I think it worked because Gus Van Sant's direction, Sean Penn's performance and Black's screenplay earned the right to that final shot. It didn't exploit it, it deserved it." And I sobbed my brains out. Even knowing the full and complete story. Very affecting.

I'm going with the underdog. Harvey Milk changed this country. Nixon almost destroyed it. The Slumdog kid is a bazillionaire and has his true love (el barfo). The Reader is a little to dark for the Academy considering the choices and TCCoBB was only okay.

Milk it is. I also think Sean Penn, Kate Winslet and Viola Davis (whose one scene was beyond superb) deserve the Oscars in their categories. Heath is a lock for supporting, so no choice there.

Them's my picks.

[regencydrama]

I really want Frost/Nixon to win BP, because I think the film did an excellent job of humanizing Richard Nixon. You went into the film despising him for lying, corruption and basically defacing the face of the presidency. You came out of it (more or less) understanding where he was coming from. It's hard for any film to get a viewer to do an about face like that.

I can get the Slumdog love - hope in the face of repeated adversity, important in these times - I just don't think it's BP material. Also, both Dev Patel and Frieda are mediocre actors. I'm probably alone in my opinion, but watching Frieda act was kind of excruciating.

[SweetOblivion]

I liked Slumdog Millionaire, I really did. But, it isn't Best Picture material, and it did not deserve Best Ensemble Cast at the SAG awards last night. Milk or Frost/ Nixon was far more deserving of that award.

[Deleted]

I've seen all the Best Picture films as well, and I enjoyed all of them. If forced to pick a favorite I'd have to go with Slumdog Millionaire. I didn't find the happy ending at all vomitous (and I have a low tolerance for that sort of thing normallly) and I thought the acting was good all-around.

But, I must admit, overall I think it's a weak group. None of them seem like Best Picture material to me. They all have flaws that become obvious (to me anyway) upon deeper analyses. If I had my druthers WALL-E would get Best Picture, but since they have the animated film category no animated film will ever get nominated for best picture again. Oh well.

[WitchyPoo]

Jan 26, 2009 16:09:16 GMT -4 @msmisery said:

I've seen all of the best picture nominees now. I'm a little conflicted. However, to quote the king, Mr. Roger Ebert, "Of the five nominees, "Milk" was far and away my personal leader ... I think it worked because Gus Van Sant's direction, Sean Penn's performance and Black's screenplay earned the right to that final shot. It didn't exploit it, it deserved it." And I sobbed my brains out. Even knowing the full and complete story. Very affecting.

I agree with that (both you and Ebert). The material could have been handled so heavily and it wasn't.

[iClaudia]

What may hurt BB is it's Forrest Gump 2008.

This was the general feeling I took away from the movie. I expected much more originality given the material they were working with it. Taraji P. Henson's Queenie gave advice to Benjamin that was just really just a rewording of the advice Forrest's mother gave to him. I think the movie lost me the first time I heard it. I do think the TPH did the best job of any of the actors in the film especially considering that the material was more limited than it should have/could have been. I would be happy if she won the Academy Award. If they feel like giving the movie a major award - then that's the one it should get.

ETA:

I didn't even know it was the same writer as FG until I read this post:

I really liked what Benjamin Button was trying to say, it just wasn't very well executed. Eric Roth rehashed Forest Gump almost plot point for plot point.

Considering this, I'd be pretty upset if they end up giving BB Best Picture or Screenplay. It's almost embarrassing.

[Atreides]

I think Heath would have still won the Oscar if he hadn't died. It was just that good and there would be the movement to "reward" him for not winning for Brokeback Mountain. Phillip Seymour Hoffman already has one, Robert Downey, Jr. was in a comedy, Michael Shannon is unknown and in a lowly regarded movie, and Sean Penn is all everyone seems to focus on when discussing Milk, leaving Josh Brolin out in the cold.

[SweetOblivion]

Jan 27, 2009 12:09:31 GMT -4 Atreides said:

I think Heath would have still won the Oscar if he hadn't died. I

Not to mention that there was considerable Oscar buzz around Ledger before he died. I have an Empire magazine from Fall '07 where they were talking about how he was probably going to get an Oscar for TDK.

He's not getting awards because he died. He's getting them because he turned in a performance that deserves to be rewarded. That he died before the movie came out doesn't change that.

[Deleted]

Also, the movie itself has received so much praise and so many awards/nominations, it's not just Heath who's being awarded. The first of the new Batman films was also already a hit with the critics back then. So this wasn't coming out of nowhere or happens just because Heath died. As I said before, the first buzz I came across for this was right after the very first trailer in 2007 was released.