I feel like Oscar voters will feel like Eddie Redmayne and Benedict Cumberbatch will have tons of opportunities in the future to get nominated and win. Michael Keaton is a veteran actor who was fucking PERFECT in a role written just for him, and in a pretty great movie. Since I think Linklater is gonna win director, giving Actor to Keaton for Birdman is in fact the next best thing to Alejandro winning since that movie is ALL about his character (to be honest, Birdman should also win editing, but I think Boyhood might get it because they edited that movie pretty well over the course of 12 years).
If Keaton wins the Globe and SAG, it is his. And I think his chances of winning both are very strong, given the makeup of those voting bodies (the HFA loves to award veteran actors and the SAG loves to award "actorly" movies).
That's true. I think he'll win SAG. I agree that it also seems like the three strongest films right now are
Boyhood,
Birdman, and
The Grand Budapest Hotel, and
Birdman is unlikely to win any of the major categories except in Best Actor unless they think cinematography is a big enough category to reward
Birdman with.
Again while I don't want to jinx him, I am surprised at how many critics awards he has won so far. Of course, he's only tied and been runner-up at three of the four major ones that have been given out, but I thought that Redmayne and even Cumberbatch would show up more since a lot of the lower tier groups often try to mimic who they think will win the Oscar but so far Redmayne has only won one award.
Awards he's won so far:
Alliance of Women Film Journalists EDA Awards
Boston Society of Film Critics
Central Ohio Film Critics Association (Runner-up/Tie)
Chicago Film Critics
Critics Choice Awards Best Actor
Critics Choice Awards Best Actor in a Comedy
Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Detroit Film Critics
Florida Film Critics Circle
Golden Globes Best Lead Actor - Comedy or Musical
Gotham Awards
Houston Film Critics
Iowa Film Critics Association
Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Las Vegas Film Critics
London Critics' Circle Film Awards
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards (Runner-up)
National Board of Review (tie)
North Carolina Film Critics Association
Oklahoma Film Critics Circle
Online Film Critics Society
People Magazine Award Movie Performance of the Year - Actor
Phoenix Film Critics Circle (I have no idea why Phoenix needs two critics groups, but he won at both.)
Phoenix Film Critics Society
San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Southeastern Film Critics Association
Utah Film Critics Association
Washington DC Critics
Maybe it's because of his love for Keaton's work, but I was surprised that I didn't find Hawke too pretentious; although, he was quite close. I wish that Tatum had spoke up more, but I could tell that he was intimidated being in that group. Keaton and Cumberbatch had a lot of great lines and stories, but Spall was just everything.
I agree. For awhile, it seemed like he never aged because I always thought even when he was younger he still looked middle aged, so when he was middle aged, he just looked the same. He's showing some signs of aging now, but I think he still looks handsome.
ETA:
Beetlejuice 2 might actually be happening I'm way too excited for this, but I loved the movie and the cartoon.
His acceptance speech at the Gotham Awards. While his speech at the Hollywood Film Awards was nice, I hope that if he continues his domination at the televised awards that more of his speeches are like this.