I've been reading about this. It's crazy. I am used to reading about the ruthlessness of royal families/ruling parties/emporers in history books, but it's always slightly surprising (I'm naive, I suppose) to see it being played out in real life. They've eaten that woman alive, spit her back up and are getting ready to throw her in the trash. It's unspeakably cruel. Some of the European press are speculating that the 'new' opposition is sort of a last-gasp of the conservatives
I think that assessment is true in large part. But I see a lot more going on than just the conservatives being neurotic about chromosomes and eggs. And I'm far from certain that the Conservatives are so politically weak, as a whole, that they're having a last gasp about anything!!!
I'm not sure anyone will care about any of this but here goes. I see the larger picture to be about two dreams for Japan's future. Japan right now is torn between the ultraconservative revisionists who control the LDP (often nicknamed as The LEAST Democratic Party) and the more modern public.
IMO, the Empress/Successsion issue is a looking glass for much larger, more politically worrying questions facing Japan. The same people who oppose the Empress succession are those spearheading the return to a 1930s Japan. I'll repeat out an explanation which I gave to someone else and that's about Japan's current political situation.
Almost half (or more) of the Japanese PM's cabinet are sons of former war criminals, men from Tojo's govt. and/or from powerful political dynasties that are fully indoctrinated in the Old School of thought. These are men who believe every inch of their father's views, no matter how heinous. These are men who have dismissed and justified the Japanese war slaves, the Rape of Nanking and the scientific/chemical/torture experimentation on "subhumans" by the Japanese Army during WWII.
These are men who, like Koizumi, go in their PUBLIC capacity every few months to bow down to the war criminals at the Yasukuni Shrine. Not just any war criminals but Class-A ones. The best parallel to describe it is: the German Chancellor going in a public capacity to bow and worship at Hitler, Goering, Himmler and Goebbels graves. It wouldn't happen in Germany but it is in Japan.
It gets even worse. The national anthem which was previously associated with nationalistic, militaristic aggression has come back after being banned for years. The Rising Sun flag associated with all of the 1930s/WWII butchery has been re-adopted after being banned for years. There is an outcry across all of Asia about Japan's new textbooks which completely rewrite the past. The lawsuits by victims of Japanese extermination and torture squads are being rejected without a word, while attacks by the ultranationalists are on the rise.
Meanwhile, the Bush govt. is supporting the Japanese govt's attempts to rewrite their constitution to let them have a huge standing army in Asia. Since the govt. in the US is so stretched out and overwhelmed, they want the Japanese to act as their sentinels in Asia. It helps the American military shortage to use the Japanese as substitutes but they don't realise what is really going on in Japan.
I've wrote my thesis on one aspect of Nazi Germany and I know enough about history (especially the totalitarian sort) to see the danger signs in Japan. Japan now is like Germany in 1930. It's on the threshold. And if either of the 2 people singled out to replace the current Japanese PM get into office, it will be a catastrophe. They both come from established political, powerhouse dynasties; they are both sons of powerful members of the militaristic Tojo/WW2 cabinet; and they are both such excessive ultranationalists that they make Atilla the Hun look leftist.
No-one is watching Japan because they are (legitimately) concerned about China and N. Korea. But the dismissal of Japan is a dangerous thing
because of those other two countries and their past problems they have with a militaristic, aggressive Japan.
Japan is making every effort to bring back the symbols of the past, and they are using the current US situation to slide other things under the carpet without anyone really noticing. Article after article in the political journals comments on the danger in Japan but there are too many other distracting things happening right now for people to notice.
The bottom line is that the situation with the Japanese monarchy is more about internal politics than anything else. Historically, the JIF has been used -- deliberately and manipulatively --- for larger political, national purposes. Even in the Meiji period, the Emperor was controlled by a powerful oligarchy. It's happening again.
This fuss about Masako isn't really about her or Aiko; it's about the conservatives' attempts to return the monarchy to pre-WWII days when the Emperor was the symbol of the state. They're trying to rewrite the Constitution to that effect, change all the post-war Allied rules, and bring back Emperor worship. They want to remilitarize and bring back Japan's old glory, just as they did the banned Rising Sun flag and the banned militaristic/nationalistic anthem, as well as rewriting all the history books to the point that there were huge, HUGE violent uprisings in neighboring Asian countries.
The Conservatives in power can't afford to have a female succession change the backwards progression to the old days. How can they justify amending the Constitution to return the Emperor's role to the old Hirohito position of importance if the "Emperor" is a woman? How can they get support from all the Shinto and religious groups who have already revolted against a female monarch? How can they erase the past if they can't make the monarch a semi-divine figure or a fully divine one, especially if the monarch isn't even a direct (male) descendent of the Goddess Amaterasu?
You mark my words, Japan in 10 years will be a huge problem, mostly because China and N. Korea (a paranoid state if there ever was one) will flip out over them. Both countries have already started but it will get much worse than week long violent riots where people die. South Korea and other countries too have also spoken up over the past year or so, with similar outbreaks.
The writing is on the wall, and a huge part of all this ties into the situation with the Japanese Imperial family. But the ultranationalists who make up Koizumi's govt. and who are likely be his successors don't care. They WILL bring back the old Japan of the 1930s, and no depressed woman or little girl is going to impede their plans.
I'm shutting up now and letting myself out before someone gags me with a pillow.