kafka
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Sept 28, 2024 7:17:44 GMT -4
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Post by kafka on Feb 8, 2006 7:43:31 GMT -4
Yes, if the succession laws stand as they are now, it will go: Emperor Akihito --> Naruhito --> Akishino-->his male heir. If no male heir, then we are back to square one.
If Masako gets divorced, then she will have little to no contact with her daughter during the critical childrearing years (or afterwards probably), regardless of whether or not Aiko becomes Empress.
Since the PM has backed off his plans to push through with the succession bill, I think it will be dead in the water until the child is born. But by that time, the new PM may not want to go through with it.
As for public support of Masako, I think there is a strong well of sympathy for her among the young. Most of them saw her as Japan's version of Princess Diana when she first married into the Imperial Family and that interest has remained, despite her difficulties. Or perhaps because of them.
Among the older and middle-aged generations, no, there isn't a lot of sympathy. Some are actually quite hostile. They see her as having failed in her duty and as having shamed her position. Others are merely very sensitive to the issue of tradition, so they think the Conservatives are right.
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Post by Mouse on Feb 8, 2006 14:31:06 GMT -4
With everything I'm reading about the Japanese imperial family and the puppet masters in the IHA, I think that Japan's monarchy is doomed. What woman with half a brain would want to marry into that family, seeing what poor Masako has suffered through? Who wants that? The only woman I can think of who'd willingly accept it would be someone from one of those ultra-conservative, ultra-nationalist families. And even that's a dodgy prospect.
How popular is the Japanese imperial family? How willing are the Japanese public to keep them? What are the chances of Japan becoming a republic when Naruhito dies?
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Post by Ninja Bunny on Feb 11, 2006 23:04:24 GMT -4
Re: Japan being a problem in 10 years.
Wow, scary stuff, Kafka. But the ultra-conservatives themselves aren't getting any younger, do you think they can really gain enough traction with the younger generations to make more of an impact?
So, do y'all think Akishino's wife is pregnant pregnant or is she, like, Katie Holmes pregnant? If she's really pregnant and has a girl I can easily envision that baby getting whisked away quietly while a boy infant is presented as their bio child. Either way I think she's officially going to have (or "have") a boy.
Then Naruhito, Masako and Aiko get thrown out of the line due to some cooked up "scandal" and Akishino is named heir to ensure a male successor. Oy.
Poor Masako. She's the first royal I've ever felt truly sorry for.
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kafka
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Sept 28, 2024 7:17:44 GMT -4
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Post by kafka on Feb 12, 2006 0:04:58 GMT -4
First, can I say that I always feel dreadfully sheepish for my long posts in this thread. I really hope I'm not coming across as lecturing because I don't mean to be. I actually sometimes try to avoid answering or posting in case it seems like "There goes Kafka again with her long Japanese posts." It's just that I have a passion (okay, okay, an obsession) with the situation in Japan and it's such a complicated thing that I can't explain in short, pithy, hiply funny answers. Re: Japan being a problem in 10 years. Wow, scary stuff, Kafka. But the ultra-conservatives themselves aren't getting any younger, do you think they can really gain enough traction with the younger generations to make more of an impact? Not necessarily. The thing is that the ruling party is very corrupt. The Liberal Democratic Party which I and others have nicknamed as "The Least Liberal Party" has been in power for something like 58 of the past 59 years. They are supported by the big industrialists, economic groups and (allegedly) some very corrupt elements. I've read things about the voting boroughs being rigged and even some support from the Yakuza, the Japanese mob. In short, they get into power regardless of what the common man wants. And their policies continue completely regardless of popular sentiment. Like the PM continuing to visit the war criminals shrine despite huge popular opposition to it. So, no, it doesn't matter what the younger voters want or think. I completely agree with that last part. As I said earlier, I wouldn't put it past the IHA to switch babies at birth. Unfortunately, it seems probable that they've done gender selection via IVF. Masako and Naruhito underwent fertility treatments and it was the only way they got Aiko. I think that Akishino and Kiko probably went the same route, although this time the IHA wanted to make certain of the result. It's been said by people with a scientific knowledge (which I lack completely) that gender selection is not all that difficult in first world nations. Gender selection would explain the pregnancy leak when Kiko was only at 6 weeks, which is too soon to know the sex of the child. The IHA was certain enough of the gender because of the In Vitro and, most likely, the gender selection. That, so far, seems to be the common consensus amongst all the people I know who watch the JIF. Then again, at this point, I truly wouldn't be surprised by a Katie Holmes' type pregnancy either. The funny thing is that, at a private board I post on and which is quite obsessed with the whole Japanese situation, quite a few people brought up Katie Holmes as a possible parallel. Mostly because they all think her pregnancy is bloody fishy too! And they definitely think there is a similarity between the Scientologists and the IHA. This part I differ slightly from you. I can't see Naruhito being thrown out because a scandal would bring disgrace not only upon him but also upon the Emperor. In a culture where saving face is so important, something like this would be impossible to live down and constitute "shame" for the entire imperial family. So, in that sense, it would be totally unacceptable for the IHA. By the same token, so would Naruhito's abdication. It would be deemed more than just "shameful" and a disgrace, but a failure which would taint the whole family. So, I honestly don't know what will happen. Some have said that Masako & Naruhito's marriage is dead in the water but I think that is mere speculation. I don't think she will get divorced because of her daughter, although I'm sure she would give nothing more than to escape. And Naruhito has been steadfast in his love and commitment to her, no matter what the personal cost to him, so it wouldn't be easy to leave him either. Does anyone here know the success rates, on average, for gender selection In Vitro? And, out of curiousity, how many think there is something fishy in the coincidental timing of this pregnancy, especially now that the PM has withdrawn the Empress/succession bill?
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Post by Ninja Bunny on Feb 12, 2006 1:56:14 GMT -4
Don't feel sheepish! I've learned a lot from your posts and have been inspired to check out more stuff on my own because of them. Keep writing.
I've checked around briefly and the IVF gender selection success rates range from about 75-80% up to 95%. It seems there's a fair chance Kiko will have an actual boy.
Re: The rest - gotcha. Wow. I had no idea the baddies are that fully entrenched in the Japanese government. Looks like Jack Abramoff has been busier than I thought. *grin* A dark thought...would the IHA go so far as to rig an "accident" for Naruhito to get him out of the way in a manner that would avoid bringing shame to the family? Failed brakes, a stumble down some stairs...
It would be so sad, she being driven to leave the one person who has been her true ally in this whole mess. How difficult would it be to set up a Japanese Imperial Family Rescue and Relocation Program? Give Masako, Naruhito and Aiko new identities and a nice, peaceful home somewhere in the Caribbean.
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kafka
Guest
Sept 28, 2024 7:17:44 GMT -4
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Post by kafka on Feb 12, 2006 2:42:56 GMT -4
Don't feel sheepish! I've learned a lot from your posts and have been inspired to check out more stuff on my own because of them. Keep writing. Thank you. That means a lot to me. I've felt so awkward in responding to things because I want to explain how bad things are but I don't want to stop conversations dead in their tracks. Which I think many of my long posts do. It doesn't help, of course, that most people don't know about the Japanese situation, so they can't talk about it a lot. On the other hand, it doesn't help that I can't answer a question in less than 8 paragraphs. LOL. Damn, it's that high??!?! S***. I wonder what if there are certain conditions which can guarantee a 95% success rate versus a 75% or, even, a 40% success rate. If this was any other monarchy --- particularly the Windsors --- the paparazzi would have been all over the couple and photographing them coming and going from some clinic. But this is the JIF and they have the most state-of-the-art clinic on the palace grounds with numerous doctors on call. I bet they had the specialists brought in to arrange the treatments. Do you know that the IHA's level of control over the Imperial Family members is so extreme that many of them don't have private, direct-access phone lines to the outside? They have to go through an IHA controlled telephone operator to make an outside call! The Emperor put his put down and insisted on private lines but I think that ended being only for him and probably not for the other royals who live within the imperial compound. As much as I despise the IHA, I don't think Black Bag jobs are their style of operating. More importantly, they don't have to resort to those sorts of extreme measures when they know they have a captive royal for the next emperor, and a male heir to ensure the line after that. They're Machiavellian political operators but they're still petty-minded bureaucrats at heart. Heh, I like the idea of a Witness Protection program. You know, the funny thing about the Masako situation is that it upsets even people who don't care about royalty. People I know who don't normally pay much attention to royal news have suddenly started muttering about how a SWAT team should free Masako or poison off the Creepy Imperial Prince. I'm curious about something, what specific issue got you (or any of you) interested in Masako? Was it how medieval her situation was, the degree of the IHA's control, the fact her nervous breakdown made her more vulnerable or real as compared to other royals, or just that my endless posts on her often brought her to the top of CPMCoG's royalty section?
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heyalice
Blueblood
Posts: 1,963
Mar 9, 2005 17:39:24 GMT -4
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Post by heyalice on Feb 12, 2006 21:23:05 GMT -4
If you were my prof, I'd never miss a class. Awesome stuff.
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kafka
Guest
Sept 28, 2024 7:17:44 GMT -4
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Post by kafka on Feb 13, 2006 18:24:21 GMT -4
If you were my prof, I'd never miss a class. Awesome stuff. Damn, that's so nice that I actually blushed, which I almost never do. And I was at a complete loss for words for several hours, which is even more rare.
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heyalice
Blueblood
Posts: 1,963
Mar 9, 2005 17:39:24 GMT -4
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Post by heyalice on Feb 14, 2006 10:10:06 GMT -4
You are very welcome. Your posts are a real eyeopener.
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Post by Auroranorth on Feb 14, 2006 10:31:59 GMT -4
I'm curious about something, what specific issue got you (or any of you) interested in Masako? Was it how medieval her situation was, the degree of the IHA's control, the fact her nervous breakdown made her more vulnerable or real as compared to other royals, or just that my endless posts on her often brought her to the top of CPMCoG's royalty section? I got interested because it's such a clash of mindsets- the modern, independent woman vs the stereotyped role of princess. It reminded me of a very interesting parallel- has anyone seen Manor House? It was shown on PBS, with people living in a manor house in Edwardian England (think intellectual reality tv). The unmarried sister, who in real life was a lecturer in microbiology and currently works as a management consultant, had to take a break from the project because she was so stressed trying to live such a restrictive life. She was there less than three months! No wonder Masako is ill, poor woman. Manor House
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