aibohphobia
Blueblood
Posts: 1,341
Jan 29, 2006 20:23:45 GMT -4
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Post by aibohphobia on Jan 28, 2008 23:29:30 GMT -4
I guess it's really all about how one (or rather, the Academy and studio bosses) would define "supporting" and that is just tricky. I'd say that something like Amy Ryan's part in Gone Baby Gone was a perfect supporting character to the main story of the film. You could argue forever about what goes into that category and what should not: were Rachel Weisz and Jennifer Connelly really supporting when they played the only female lead roles in the films they won for (Constant Gardener and A Beautiful Mind)? And how come that someone like Reese who, as some say, clearly played a supporting character to Joaquin Phoenix' lead role, gets thrown into the Lead category? Can characters that are only on screen for a few minutes really be classified as "supporting"? I think it's difficult to say and also depends on the film/role. It often seems as if the Academy uses these supporting categories to honour veteran actors who only had practically cameos in the film they were nominated for. Gives them a chance to quickly hand out an award before it's too late. I'll say that Ruby Dee and Hal Holbrook's chances aren't too slim.... Yes, I'm not saying I agree at all with the Academy doing make-up awards, but they are known to do it, moreso in the men's category imo, than the women's, but if the SAG could do it, I could see the Oscars following suit like Crash winning Best Picture even though the SAG ensemble was about the only major award it got. So I think that helps out Ruby Dee a lot. I haven't seen all five performances to have a favorite; although, it probably wouldn't be Ruby Dee going by what I saw of her performance on YouTube! which I think was pretty much all of it, but I think she has a really good chance now even better than Amy Ryan and Cate Blanchett who I originally thought were the frontrunners. They're still in the race, but I think it will go to someone whose considered more of a veteran than Ryan, but hasn't won before like Blanchett which leaves either Dee or Tilda Swinton. Before the SAG awards, I was more optimistic about Swinton winning, but I don't really know now since I could see the Guild awards matching the Oscar races exactly. I think Hal Holbrook has a very small chance especially since Into the Wild didn't receive many nominations, but I think Javier Bardem is pretty much unstoppable now.
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Deleted
Posts: 0
Sept 23, 2024 0:32:20 GMT -4
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Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2008 0:14:08 GMT -4
Having seen all the Best Supporting Actress performances, they were all good but I would definitely put Ruby Dee at the bottom of the list. She had so little screen time and her role could've been played by any other actress. My personal preference would be for Amy Ryan, Cate Blanchett, and Tilda Swinton in that order. Saoirse Ronan did really well herself, but she's young yet and had plenty of time in her career for awards. Unfortunately Ruby Dee got a big boost from the SAG Awards, and it now seems to me that it's between her and Cate Blanchett. Tilda Swinton has the best chance out of the others of pulling off an upset. Which I hope she does. I loved Cate's performance but it's someone else's turn I think. I really want that someone else to be Amy Ryan but I don't see it happening.
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Deleted
Posts: 0
Sept 23, 2024 0:32:20 GMT -4
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2008 15:56:02 GMT -4
I just watched La Vie en Rose and if Marion Cotillard does not win the Oscar, it's a damn shame. I think she was a million times better than Julie Christie was in Away From Her. Marion blew me away.
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Deleted
Posts: 0
Sept 23, 2024 0:32:20 GMT -4
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2008 16:12:51 GMT -4
Sadly, I haven't seen either performance but I'm reading more and more posts on the various Oscar sites about how brilliant Marion is in her film. If the Oscars were still in March I'd be slightly hopeful that she could pull an upset (I'm saying "hopeful" because I like Marion). In those times the pre-Oscar awards recognition was also a bit more spread out. Now it's always one actor/actress winning all awards including the Oscar. Back when it was at the later date, several actors would win. At the moment I'm predicting the following actor wins (and I guess I will stick with them):
Actress: Christie Actor: Day-Lewis Supp.Actress: Dee Supp.Actor: Bardem
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Ella
Sloane Ranger
Posts: 2,945
Dec 6, 2005 19:33:31 GMT -4
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Post by Ella on Feb 2, 2008 19:07:17 GMT -4
I haven't seen Into the Wild but my sister did. She called me that night and told me that Hal Holbrook was amazing and should win the Oscar. I think he would have if it not been for Bardem. I'd be happy if he did win an upset. I doubt it tho.
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Post by Ripley on Feb 3, 2008 1:12:36 GMT -4
I would be really happy if Tilda Swinton got Best Supporting Actress. TTMR & I just got back from Michael Clayton, and I really thought the movie suffered whenever Swinton was not on screen.
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Post by canuckcutie on Feb 3, 2008 19:31:04 GMT -4
I'm thinking that there is going to be at least one upset and I'd be surprised if Dee won in supporting - I think one of the other actresses will take it.
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aibohphobia
Blueblood
Posts: 1,341
Jan 29, 2006 20:23:45 GMT -4
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Post by aibohphobia on Feb 3, 2008 21:01:35 GMT -4
Sadly, I haven't seen either performance but I'm reading more and more posts on the various Oscar sites about how brilliant Marion is in her film. If the Oscars were still in March I'd be slightly hopeful that she could pull an upset (I'm saying "hopeful" because I like Marion). In those times the pre-Oscar awards recognition was also a bit more spread out. Now it's always one actor/actress winning all awards including the Oscar. Back when it was at the later date, several actors would win. At the moment I'm predicting the following actor wins (and I guess I will stick with them): Actress: Christie Actor: Day-Lewis Supp.Actress: Dee Supp.Actor: Bardem Those are my predictions as well right now; although, there could be a surprise in Best Actress and Supporting Actress. I agree about moving up the date too. I actually thought it was a good thing before they did it because I thought that instead of movies being released mainly in December to qualify, and then never showing up here where I live until the next year, that if the awards were moved up, quality movies would be spread through out the year, and I actually thought that instead of making the awards more predictable, it would make them less predictable because there would be less time for a person/movie to feel like a lock to win during the long awards season. I was wrong on both accounts though, and it actually made the Oscars more predictable than before. Anyhow, No Country for Old Men won the Producers Guild of America Award which makes it that much stronger to win Best Picture. Perhaps I'm being stupid, but I don't think of it as quite a lock though because I still think There Will Be Blood has a chance, if not for Best Picture maybe for Director and/or Screenplay since the Coens have won an Academy Award for Screenwriting before. So if they win Director, Screenplay, and Editing, that's a lot of awards for just two people especially since they've already won before, so I think that the Academy might want to spread the wealth a little especially since PT Anderson has never won before, and There Will Be Blood is every much a critical success as No Country for Old Men has been. Or they could split votes, and I could still see Juno perhaps winning since it's the most financially successful of the five films, and it could have advantage since it's the lightest film of the bunch.
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Deleted
Posts: 0
Sept 23, 2024 0:32:20 GMT -4
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2008 16:38:20 GMT -4
It doesn't really matter if a film wins multiple awards, that happens even though the academy does like to spread it out and has done so over the last few years.
I do think that there will be an upset in one of the categories that most people will think is a lock or a sure thing. I'm currently leaning toward original screenplay right now.
Anyone know when the writer's guild announces it's winner?
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huntergrayson
Guest
Sept 23, 2024 0:32:20 GMT -4
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Post by huntergrayson on Feb 5, 2008 21:32:34 GMT -4
This upcoming Saturday, Feb. 9th -- though there was a rumor that because the nominees weren't in any sort of alphabetical order, that those listed first (No Country and Juno, respectively) are the winners.
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