Thank you
Sunnyhorse for bumbing this
It's September and of course most of the true Oscar movies are yet to come. I'm really interested in seeing what they'll do with The Dark Knight. There's a planned
re-release to push the film's Oscar chances and I think they have chances to grab a few noms. Oscar needs a bigger film in its lineup this year and I'll now say that TDK may get in.
And I think it's already safe to assume that Clint's latest will be in the final five noms for Best Picture because the Academy loves Clint and whatever he throws out there.
It seems like this year is like the last few years again where imo, all the Oscar bait that was suppose to happen faltered. I know that happens every year, but to me I feel like it's happened more and more since they bumped up the Oscars with everything coming out around November and December with very few nominees in the bigger categories coming earlier. I thought that moving up the Oscars would lead to better movies being released throughout the year, but now it seems worse especially when projects (
Dreamgirls,
Cold Mountain,
Atonement) that were suppose to do better didn't meet the expectations that many Oscar prognosticators had for them.
Like this year, I read from a relatively reliable Oscar prognosticator Kris Tapley that
Doubt isn't that good; although, I would still expect Meryl Streep to make it for either that movie or
Mamma Mia even though he doesn't have her listed for either one. Also, this one really isn't surprising because David Fincher has never been one of the Academy's favorites, but the buzz around
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is that it's not that great either. This isn't surprising either but someone who saw an advanced screening of
Frost/Nixon at Columbia, thought it was okay but would have been much better if Ron Howard hadn't directed. Apparently, it felt like the play too much. Also, surprisingly,
Defiance which Edward Zwick is behind is now picking up a lot of buzz, but I don't really trust the buzz since it seems his movies always falter except for a few acting nominations for them.
Anyhow, all that is to get to the point that I do think that
The Dark Knight can sneak in there now. I think that the amount
of money that it has made so far won't be ignored, and that even if it doesn't get Best Picture, I think that Christopher Nolan finally gets his first Best Director nomination in that one spot that never seems to match up with the Best Picture category. In fact, if
Defiance does make it in, I wouldn't be surprised to find Edward Zwick being the director that is left out or perhaps they'll snub Baz Luhrmann again. I don't think so though since
Australia seems to be getting good buzz, and it seems like the kind of epic that Hollywood use to love to honor.
Other films on the rise now are
The Wrestler, but I expect only a Best Actor nomination for Mickey Rourke (never thought I'd ever write that) and maybe one for Marissa Tomei or Evan Rachel Wood. (Hopefully the former because the latter getting one even if some people think she was snubbed for
Thirteen would be too much smug for me to handle on Oscar night.)
Slumdog Millionaire might be the sleeper like
Juno was last year. On the acting front, Charlize Theron might be a double nominee if there is one, and it will be interesting to see who wins the Best Supporting Actor category if Robert Downey Jr. and Heath Ledger are both nominated. Downey Jr. apparently has three great roles on his side and that wonderful comeback story, but Ledger's The Joker is so iconic and will be the last chance to honor Ledger. If Downey Jr.'s role in
The Soloist is big enough, I would hope that he gets pushed leading since I think he would have a better chance there assuming that Sean Penn or Benicio Del Toro are the frontrunners with their biopics considering that they already won. Of course, if
Gran Torino does manage to get released this year, I think Best Actor will go to Clint Eastwood since they most likely will nominate him for either that movie,
The Changeling, or perhaps both in Best Director and Best Film, but since he's just missing the Best Actor trophy and won't likely get many chances to win that prize while he's already won the other two awards twice, I think he'll be a lock for that category, even though I hate that word this early in the Oscar season.
I like that website too; although the forum over there seems to have to many warring factions. I don't always agree with Sasha, the person behind Awards Daily, but I like that nominees are only added after the movie has been screened. I love to make predictions and search out the latest buzz even if it isn't always true, but its nice that AD seems to give every movie the same amount of chance and lets the final product speak for itself instead of maybe playing favorites even unintentionally like I've seen some other places do.