Not that I've seen either but isn't her part in Elegy more Oscar-baity?
It seems that
Vicky Christina Barcelona is the more known film though right now. Plus, Woody Allen films have a good history of getting supporting actress nominations, and I think he'll definitely get an Original Screenplay nomination out of the film because most of what he puts out except for
Match Point has been so bad at least to most critics. Plus, the
VCB is doing well financially so far. I don't know if Cruz will win though because I can't remember offhand if the person who won was ever given the Oscar by someone that he/she was involved with romantically; although, they do set it up to have friends or family members sort of like when Michael Douglas and Kirk Douglas presented Best Picture to
Chicago. More importantly though, since she's one of the early candidates or basically the only one at this time, except for Misty Upham although Melissa Leo seems to be getting the most attention for
Frozen River and Debra Winger and Marisa Tomei whose movies have only been screened at festivals so far, I don't really see her frontrunner status lasting all the way until next February or March as more Oscar caliber movies are released.
Yes, I don't see Keira making it in this year since there's so many other movies still to come, and I don't see her in too many people's predictions. I think the previous nomination for
Pride and Prejudice in a weak year also works against her since I think she's really going to have to do something really different from that not another period piece necessarily and have it be a really worthy performance. If there is a young ingenue spot this year, I think it will most likely go too Anne Hathaway for
Rachel Getting Married since there was good buzz about her at Venice; although, she didn't win the Best Actress prize there. Plus, she's been financially successful like Knightley and Witherspoon, so I can see them wanting to honor her with a nomination. Since
The Young Victoria looks like its been moved to 2009, I guess this won't be Emily Blunt's year for that possible ingenue spot since many feel she was snubbed for
The Devil Wears Prada.
I haven't heard anything about
Revolutionary Road,
The Reader, or
Body of Lies yet. After the Oscar's this year when I was looking ahead, it did seem very possible that Kate and Leo could finally win and not only that but win together to have a
Titanic reunion up onstage. I liked the idea because I did like
Titanic, and it seemed, imo, a good way to help bring the ratings up because more people might tune in if there was a probable chance of that happening. I don't know now though because the Best Actor category seems so competitive this year with Sean Penn, Benicio Del Toro, Viggo Mortensen, Mickey Rourke, Clint Eastwood, and Frank Langella all getting positive buzz at this time that I don't feel that this will be DiCaprio's year after all. While I see Winslet easily getting nominated since they love her, and the Best Actress category never seems to be as competitive as the mens, I don't see it as her year either since the combination of
Mamma Mia and
Doubt might be too much for the Academy too ignore. Or it might go to Kristin Scott Thomas who everyone whose seen
I've Loved You So Long is raving about. She'll definitely pick up a fair amount of critic awards.
ETA: I forgot about Sally Hawkins also being a possibility for the young ingenue spot. She will definitely get a Golden Globe nomination for
Happy-Go-Lucky, but a win seems unlikely with Streep being the most likely to win at this point.