And The Oscar Goes To......

[aibohphobia]

Dec 1, 2009 23:13:18 GMT -4 @ds1 said:

I'm scared Natalie Portman might get nominated for "Brothers."

I guess it could happen, but for some reason Lion's Gate is pushing Portman for supporting, which seems too crowded already.

All of the nominees for that category could possibly come from three movies (Precious, Nine, Up in the Air), four if you count Inglourious Basterds since there's a lot of supporting actresses in those films that still have some chance. Throw in Julianne Moore and possibly Maggie Gyllenhaal if people decides she really is supporting like Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler last year since the roles are suppose to be similar, and I think supporting will be too crowded. Plus, her studio will likely push Precious first and foremost for the Academy Award.

If she went leading, she might have a better chance, but that category keeps getting more crowded now with Sandra Bullock being a suprise possibility and Harvey Weinstein pushing Marion Cotillard and Melanie Laurent into the leading category now; although, just a few months ago, a lot of pundits including me were complaining about the lack of good, leading female roles.

Also, most of the reviews that I've read thus far though all single out Tobey Maguire. I think he would actually have a good shot if he were going supporting, but for some reason he's being pushed as leading where he stands no chance because of his age and not much screentime compared to all the other leading candidates.

[Martini Girl]

Yay for 500 Days of Summer's Independent Spirit Award nominations! Boo for An Education being relegated to Best Foreign Film. Seriously?

Also, boo for Gwyneth over Carey Mulligan for Best Actress.

[aibohphobia]

Dec 1, 2009 23:50:14 GMT -4 Martini Girl said:

Yay for 500 Days of Summer's Independent Spirit Award nominations! Boo for An Education being relegated to Best Foreign Film. Seriously?

Also, boo for Gwyneth over Carey Mulligan for Best Actress.

I'm not an expert at all on the Spirit Awards, but even those that are have found it confusing that a film like The Last Station is considered an American film which means it's eligible for all their categories, but An Education is considered a foreign film which means that it could only be nominated for Best Foreign Film which is probably the reason there's no Carey Mulligan.

Even if it was eligible though under their weird rules, sometimes they exclude people who seem like sure things and nominate really out there nominees. Like this year, Hal Holbrook didn't get in for That Evening Sun but two of his co-stars did when to most awards' pundits that it should be the other way around.

One final note too, The Hurt Locker submitted itself for last year's Sprit Awards, and not this year's otherwise it probably would have gave Precious and The Last Station, a run for their money.

[Martini Girl]

Aibophobia-- Then how can Sin Nombre be nominated? It's completely a foreign film...

[aibohphobia]

Dec 2, 2009 21:27:08 GMT -4 Martini Girl said:

Aibophobia-- Then how can Sin Nombre be nominated? It's completely a foreign film...

I had to look it up, but Cary Fukunaga, the director, is American which is why it's considered an American film and eligible in all categories. It doesn't really make any sense because I don't think people will think that Up in the Air is a Canadian film just because Jason Reitman is Canadian, but that's the Spirit Awards.

Usually I do tend to ignore them because they're not really reliable at all in terms of being a good precursor for the Oscars, but I was happy that The Messenger did make it in. So either it will continue it's run tomorrow when the National Board of Review reveals their winners, or it will probably be stopped at getting some Satellite and Spirit nominations.

ETA:
For some reason, the National Board of Review hasn't put up their awards yet, but Indie Wire has an article on the winners.

It looks like they really loved Up in the Air. The biggest surprises were very little love for Precious or Nine. The latter being left off everywhere is especially weird since they're usually very friendly to Harvey Weinstein. They continue to love Clint though. Finally, I'm so happy for Woody Harrelson now. I've moved him from being a longshot to probable nominee with the week he's been having.

[Atreides]

Well thanks to the NBR's list, here's hoping for a Best Picture nom for Star Trek! Hey, anything's possible this year with ten Best Picture nominations.

[normadesmond]

As long as Gwyneth Paltrow and Natalie Portman aren't nominated, I'll be happy. Unfortunately, I think they both have a shot. Mo'Nique, Carey Mulligan, Helen Mirren, or Meryl Streep better start racking up some awards stat to block Natalie from the winner's podium, whatever happens. Come on, Oscar, you did the right thing by blocking Kate Hudson from an undeserved win - you could have done better by not nominating her at all. Do the same with Natalie please.

[angelaudie]

Well thanks to the NBR's list, here's hoping for a Best Picture nom for Star Trek! Hey, anything's possible this year with ten Best Picture nominations.

Same here! I'm always thrilled when sci-fi/fantasy films are acknowledged in categories other technical achievements. Star Trek was one of the best films this year and I do think does deserve a spot in the Best Picture list. It wouldn't have a shot at winning but again it's nice to see sci-fi acknowledged being in good in something other than makeup and special effects. ST will definitely be nominated for special effects and perhaps even makeup, costume, and score depending how weak those categories are.

I did read Paramount is planning on pushing Star Trek for Best Picture. Then again, I also read that they also plan on pushing Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen for Best Picture as well. What's next? Megan Fox for Best Actress?

[forever1267]

Wasn't there a conversation a few months ago about Swank vs. Bening Round 3? Hilary would be up for Amelia, and Annette would be up for ... something? Seems to have died down completely because I haven't seen Annette's name anywhere.

[aibohphobia]

Dec 4, 2009 0:32:03 GMT -4 @normadesmond said:

As long as Gwyneth Paltrow and Natalie Portman aren't nominated, I'll be happy. Unfortunately, I think they both have a shot. Mo'Nique, Carey Mulligan, Helen Mirren, or Meryl Streep better start racking up some awards stat to block Natalie from the winner's podium, whatever happens. Come on, Oscar, you did the right thing by blocking Kate Hudson from an undeserved win - you could have done better by not nominating her at all. Do the same with Natalie please.

I think that Gwyneth Paltrow has no shot this year at all, so at least we're safe with her. She did score a Spirts nomination, but there's very little correlation between those and the Oscars for most of their nominations. Obviously they do go for the baity stuff to like Precious will probably have a lot of overlap between the two, but they love to go their own way too which is why no Joaquin Phoenix but they nominate Gwyneth Paltrow or no Ben Foster, but they'll nominate Samantha Morton for the same movie even though his performance has been the most praised.

It could be because one category might be stronger than the other, or they want to recognize a little bit of everything but not too much of something either which leads to some headscratching nominations sometimes. Like they completely missed Laura Linney one year for The Savages even though that seems like a performance that they would recognize so that other people would know about it too.

Natalie Portman does have a small chance, but I think that it was a big mistake to go supporting since I think leading is slightly less competitve than supporting, and sometimes they just won't go with category fraud at all although admittedly more often they do than don't. I think the reviews are going to be too mixed though for Brothers even if Jim Sheridan is an Oscar friendly director, and that Lion's Gate is more concerned about pushing Precious which may have peaked too soon and may need more help now to get it back ontrack to a Best Picture win. (I was definitely a little bit premature in declaring that the winner a few weeks ago as it looks like Up in the Air will likely be the Best Picture winner this year.) If they hadn't bungled the categories for Brothers so much, I would be worried that they were actually going to give it a serious Oscar push, but I'm not sure why they put Maguire leading, and Portman and Gyllenhaal supporting. Portman should be the only one going leading since she's the only one that would have a chance of a nomination going that way. Maguire may have missed out on a nomination because he's been getting raves out of all three actors, but the leading one already seems mostly set (Clooney, Freeman, Bridges, Firth, and possibly Renner/Day-Lewis/Holbrook) while the supporting category is certainly more fluid with Christoph Waltz feeling like the only true lock right now. Plus, the supporting category is much easier for younger actors to be nominated in than the leading category.

Wasn't there a conversation a few months ago about Swank vs. Bening Round 3? Hilary would be up for Amelia, and Annette would be up for ... something? Seems to have died down completely because I haven't seen Annette's name anywhere.

We all have to wait until next year for round three as Bening's movie won't be released until that time, and Amelia is pretty much DOA now. Swank does have Betty Ann Waters though which sounds like another extremely baity role because she's playing a working mother who puts herself through law school to defend her brother who was wrongfully convicted of murder. Swank's going to win her third Oscar next year, isn't she?