And The Oscar Goes To......

[huntergrayson]

I would love if they kept the tradition of free booze for the press conference -- just have the HFPA suits completely slurring by the end. That'd be entertaining.

I don't think coming out a long time ago will hurt Away from Her *that* much -- most members watch screeners now (which, sad, because I want the people voting for the movies to care enough to go out and *see* the movies) and it seems like the chamber-drama piece that will play well on the small screen. Plus, the majority of Academy voters are (a) actors and (b) older which seems like it bodes well.

I've been reading Slate's Movie Club and they've been talking about how this is a supergreat year for films and I was "eh?" at first. But I just went to see Atonement, Sweeney and TWBB - and then realize that I still need to see Into the Wild, Jesse James, Gone Baby Gone, Before the Devil, etc, etc.

It's gonna be interesting, for sure.

(I'd love a nom for Garner as well. And for a miracle reappearance for Zodiac).

I wonder how much having a non-ceremony for the GG will affect Oscar voting.

[Deleted]

Aww, sorry to see the GGs go, although they're not really that relevant anymore I like their ceremony - no long montages and clips, no host, no un-funny introductions, better speeches....but I guess if it helps the WGA to make their point then it's ok :-) And we'll learn about the winners anyway so all is good.


Critics Choice Awards

Best Picture - No Country for Old Men
Best Directors - Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Best Actress - Julie Christie - Away From Her
Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Best Picture Made for Television - Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee
Best Documentary -Sicko
Best Family Film - Enchanted
Best Animated Film - Ratatouille
Joel Siegel Humanitarian Award - Don Cheadle
Best Foreign Language Film - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Supporting Actress - Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Best Supporting Actor - Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Best Song - Falling Slowly - Once
Best Composer - Jonny Greenwood - There Will Be Blood
Best Comedy - Juno
Best Young Actor - Ahmad Khan Mahmoodzada - The Kite Runner
Best Young Actress - Nikki Blonsky - Hairspray
Best Screenplay - Diablo Cody - Juno
Best Ensemble - Hairspray

[aibohphobia]

thursdaynext said:

...I do feel like he is one of the recurring names on critics lists that has the greatest potential to be shut out come Oscar-time. Although he is a great actor with a previous nom (I think the Academy loves to nominate past nominees as a way of showing that they got it right the first time around)

I completely agree with your posts. It's so weird this year with even the high profile best actor candidates falling by the wayside as their female counterparts that he may just get in, but it doesn't seem to be a movie the Academy would go for especially since I don't think it did that well overall. Plus, I just wanted to single out that I think the previous nomination thing may be something that helps Keira Knightley a lot for that last Best Actress spot. I know that Amy Adams was nominated recently, but I don't remember there being any outcry at all that she shouldn't have been nominated unlike with Knightley's nomination. So I think that favors Knightley a lot more that people didn't think she deserved her first nomination writing it off as her just being lucky that was a particularly weak year for Best Actress. If she becomes a two-time nominee then it strengthens their credibility for the first nomination. (Although I'm sure over at Gold Derby and elsewhere there will be threads with titles like "Is Keira Knightley the worst two time Oscar nominee ever?" especially since she's not truly the leading actress in Atonement). I still don't think she'll get in unless they really go for Atonement like the BAFTA's are sure to do since it scored the most pre-nominations there. I've been hearing all kinds of things from "insiders" who say that voters are mixed about Atonement, but to me it just feels like a film that will be nominated for many Academy Awards perhaps even more than any other film because of all the categories it can possibly be nominated in (Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Costume, Cinematography, Sound, Sound Editing, Editing). However, if the buzz is true, I could easily see it winning nothing too despite being nominated for because there's always that one film that despite getting many nominations goes home empty-handed (Bugsy, Gangs of New York).

I seriously have no clue who the top five will be and I usually feel pretty confident about the Best Actor nominees.

I'm really loving this year so far. Sure the rest of the categories are almost set already, but there's still a chance for a surprise to happen in any of the leading categories since it's not the same five movies/people getting in everywhere like it usually seems like at this point in the race. Another big plus is that with the two favorites at least for the leading acting races already having won before, there could be an upset since now the Academy tends to favor first timers instead of rewarding someone with another Oscar. (Someone at GD did statistics on this, and I believe the timeframe is either for just 2000 or going back farther than that, that it's unprecented how many first time nominees have won.)

Oh well I have to stop now before I write another long epic post, and the real reason I wanted to post doesn't really have anything to do with the Oscars at all. It's just a list of the Rising Star Award nominees that BAFTA gives.

Shia LaBeouf
Sienna Miller
Ellen Page
Sam Riley
Tang Wei

This is voted on the public, so I can't fault BAFTA directly for it, but I don't know it just seems like Sienna Miller shouldn't be included at all on this list. I know that LaBeouf and Page aren't exactly true newcomers, but I think they fit because this was the year they had their breakout turns as far as being possibly being the next big stars of tomorrow. It just seems like Miller has been the It girl forever well ever since she hooked up with Jude Law which seems like it's been ages ago, and that it's a little too late for her now to be nominated as a breakout star or rising star. I know she had Factory Girl and Interview, but it seems like her spot could have went to someone who better fit, and didn't have as near as much press as she has had for someone whose done so little.

[Deleted]

I've been hearing all kinds of things from "insiders" who say that voters are mixed about Atonement, but to me it just feels like a film that will be nominated for many Academy Awards perhaps even more than any other film because of all the categories it can possibly be nominated in (Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Costume, Cinematography, Sound, Sound Editing, Editing). However, if the buzz is true, I could easily see it winning nothing too despite being nominated for because there's always that one film that despite getting many nominations goes home empty-handed (Bugsy, Gangs of New York).

I am getting the same impression (without lovely "insider" gossip, sadly) although I think it has a great chance to take home a score of "lesser" nominations (costume, make-up, etc...). I think Atonement is a beautiful film that plays to what the Academy likes to see as its strengths - or what it likes in a best picture (a euro-centric literary period epic) but I think the reaction from the American critics has been muted and, aside from enthusiastic reviews from the UK, there doesn't seem to be much passion for it.

I still hope it gets the nominations. I thought it was a great film and deserves to be recognized with nominations at least. My fingers are extra, extra crossed for James McAvoy. With Gosling and Hirsch getting a lot of traction from US critics, he has an uphill battle to fight in order to claim the "young rising star" spot in the final five.

[Deleted]

At this point, it seems almost certain to me that James McAvoy's excellent performance in Atonement won't be nominated for an Oscar, if only because it seems so many other actors are being pushed harder to fill the limited spots. I would be over the moon if he were recognized by the academy, but I doubt very much that he will be.

[Deleted]

The DGA has posted their pics for best pictures and directors. Sorry, I don't have a link or the complete list, but I did notice that Juno, Atonement, and Sweeny Todd are not included. I think the chances for Atonement getting a best picture nod is slipping by the day and Sweeny Todd is gone completely. Juno could still get in as it has a stronger momentum.

[Deleted]

At this point, it seems almost certain to me that James McAvoy's excellent performance in Atonement won't be nominated for an Oscar, if only because it seems so many other actors are being pushed harder to fill the limited spots. I would be over the moon if he were recognized by the academy, but I doubt very much that he will be.

Oh, unfortunately, I hear you. I felt he had a really good shot when the pre-release buzz for Atonement was so strong because of his highly praised, high profile performance in The Last King of Scotland (and because Forrest Whitaker was always so gracious about his performance that it kept James in the spotlight). Then, Atonement came out and although it garnered a lot of praise for McAvoy he didn't really register on many of the critics awards lists. His chances do seem to be slim to none unless the Academy has some major surprises up its sleeve (not likely!). Still... my fingers are crossed.

If I can't will a nomination for James into being, I will put my energies into scoring a nomination for Viggo Mortensen. He was sensational in Eastern Promises (not to mention A History of Violence) and seems to be getting some last minute critical love. A month ago, I would have said there was no chance in hell that he would be nominated but at this point, he might be one of those surprises that squeak by at the last minute. I think that Viggo is an uneven actor at best but his work with Cronenberg has been nothing short of great and I think it would be awesome if he got a nomination.

The funny thing is... I am putting all this time into speculating who might be nominated and the Best Actor category seems to be pretty much a lock in terms of the winner. I cannot imagine anyone beating Daniel Day Lewis at this point. The nominees haven't even been announced and I still cannot see anyone even coming close.

[aibohphobia]

flamethrower said:

The DGA has posted their pics for best pictures and directors. Sorry, I don't have a link or the complete list, but I did notice that Juno, Atonement, and Sweeny Todd are not included. I think the chances for Atonement getting a best picture nod is slipping by the day and Sweeny Todd is gone completely. Juno could still get in as it has a stronger momentum.

I was just coming over here to post that since I was forgot that they came out today. DGA Nominations

Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

I agree that this really hurts Atonement's chances now. It doesn't seem to be well received by Hollywood at all with this snub and the SAG snubs.

I wasn't sure about Michael Clayton as a Best Picture nominee before, but unlike Atonement, it actually has the best chance of getting the most acting nominees from a film this year since Clooney, Swinton, and Wilkinson are likely to be nominated while the actors from Atonement are on shakier ground even Redgrave and Ronan at this point.

I don't know about Into the Wild either since it's been snubbed before too, but the actors seemed to really love it, and actor-directors seem to have a good chance it seems to me to be nominated (Redford, Costner, Clooney). It could also potentially get three acting nominations; although, it's like Atonement in that a lot of actors could get in from the film or potentially none of them.

Further, I had thought that if there is a mismatch of directors and pictures that Sidney Lumet was definitely in because I thought The Diving Bell and the Butterfly had fallen off the radar since it got some critic regonition but not very much compared to some other films, and it didn't seem to really be a nomination favorite at the big awards so far. I think Julian Schnabel now has a better chance of getting that director spot whose film isn't nominated for Best Picture because of the DGA nomination and because he's been waiting awhile for his breakthrough nomination.

I think Juno is still in for Best Picture, but Reitman will be the director who gets snubbed. (If he is, diablocody, would you pull a Whoopi Goldberg or a Shirley Maclaine/Someone else that I can't remember right now and make a comment about how Reitman should have been there if that kind of scenario happens?)

without lovely "insider" gossip, sadly

I'm not really sure how much to believe, but there are posters that don't seem biased and truthful to me. Anyhow, it's all over at Gold Derby. However, as much as the site's head honcho, Tom O'Neill seems like a nice guy, I should learn by now not to trust his posts because he's definitely very biased, so when he loves something, he always raves about how the voters at the screenings all loved it too and vice versa if he hates something. Then, when he's wrong, he usually blames it on the Academy having backward thinking or something. There are a few other regular posters though that seem to be in the know, and unlike O'Neil, they don't let their biases get in the way of revealing helpful information about how voters are feeling about certain movies.

(Finally, I noticed that Miramax is involved with a lot of the DGA nominees. That must be killing Harvey Weinstein that Cate Blanchett might get the only nomination for his new studio, and she's not even a favorite to win anymore right now since Ryan has the critic awards but Swinton or even Keener have the due factor. I don't understand why he didn't push Control more since I think it could have fared well at the Oscars since Samantha Morton seems to somewhat of a favorite, and with Best Actor being so unpredictable, Sam Riley had a good chance of sneaking in for a biopic since those seem so fashionable. Plus, I think the cinematography could have gotten a nomination as well. I heard he has bad blood with Morton; although, they may have made up by now, but I could see him being petty about not pushing the film since one of his favorite leading ladies isn't it if there's still issues there over him not wanting her for The Brothers Grimm because she was considered too fat even though both Matt Damon and Terry Gilliam wanted her. Of course, it's probably for the best since she could have unexpectedly dropped out like she has some other films, and/or because that film was panned so much.)

[Martini Girl]

thursdaynext said:

At this point, it seems almost certain to me that James McAvoy's excellent performance in Atonement won't be nominated for an Oscar, if only because it seems so many other actors are being pushed harder to fill the limited spots. I would be over the moon if he were recognized by the academy, but I doubt very much that he will be.

Oh, unfortunately, I hear you. I felt he had a really good shot when the pre-release buzz for Atonement was so strong because of his highly praised, high profile performance in The Last King of Scotland (and because Forrest Whitaker was always so gracious about his performance that it kept James in the spotlight). Then, Atonement came out and although it garnered a lot of praise for McAvoy he didn't really register on many of the critics awards lists. His chances do seem to be slim to none unless the Academy has some major surprises up its sleeve (not likely!). Still... my fingers are crossed.

If I can't will a nomination for James into being, I will put my energies into scoring a nomination for Viggo Mortensen. He was sensational in Eastern Promises (not to mention A History of Violence) and seems to be getting some last minute critical love. A month ago, I would have said there was no chance in hell that he would be nominated but at this point, he might be one of those surprises that squeak by at the last minute. I think that Viggo is an uneven actor at best but his work with Cronenberg has been nothing short of great and I think it would be awesome if he got a nomination.

The funny thing is... I am putting all this time into speculating who might be nominated and the Best Actor category seems to be pretty much a lock in terms of the winner. I cannot imagine anyone beating Daniel Day Lewis at this point. The nominees haven't even been announced and I still cannot see anyone even coming close.

I would love for Viggo to score a nomination, but he doesn't actively campaign, and the competition is too fierce. As for DDL, he was suppose to be a lock for "Gangs of New York"..... and in the end, Adrien Brody took the prize.

I think people in the industry respect Daniel, but I don't think they necessarily love him. It will be interesting to see how the writer's strike affects campaigning from this point out, and how the nominees campaign for the award.

[Deleted]

I've just realize my pathetic reason why somewhere in my heart I kinda hope that Julie Christie won't win.... I still want Kate to win that Oscar and I think she has a chance with Revolutionary Road next year. But I doubt the Academy would want to award a British actress three years in a row...


And I'm now convinced that Javier Bardem will win Supporting instead of poor old Casey Affleck.