And The Oscar Goes To......

[Brookie]

Who's got it locked up? Who's the heartbreaker? Who's going to pull an upset? Discuss your prognostications here for the 2007 flicks.

[aibohphobia]

I haven't even seen I'm Not There, so maybe Cate Blanchett really is that great. I'm already sick of the hype around her performance though because I loath Harvey Weinstein and how he plays favorites, usually with blond, stick thin, actresses, that he favors at the moment, and unfortunately Cate is in that position now even though I normally love her. Maybe her performance was worthy of the Venice Best Actress prize and all of the hoopla around it, but I can't help but feel if he hadn't said that he'd kill himself if Cate didn't win an Academy Award for it, there wouldn't be so much Oscar buzz now. Again, the performance may really be worthy and stand out from everyone else's in that movie, but right now I do feel some resentment that all the buzz is around Cate especially after reading reviews about how Charlotte Gainsbourg really holds the movie together, and that Cate has the most enjoyable part of the movie and is great in that, but not necessarily any better than the other Dylans.

I predict that she'll definitely be nominated though. I don't know if she'll win because I don't know if it's a movie that the Academy will like plus I've been reading that they may not want to award her another supporting Oscar, but will want to award her with a leading one the next time that she wins. She's definitely not getting in this year for The Golden Age even if there's a dearth of female leading roles again.

Atonement sort of lost some of it's buzz now; although I do suspect that Keira Knightley will still be nominated for Best Actress. I don't think she'll win because of her age, and the fact that she's not really in the movie that much. Also, at least one of her other female co-stars will get nominated in supporting probably Saiorse Ronan, but maybe Vanessa Redgrave or Romola Garai.

I predict that our very own Diablo Cody will definitely be nominated for Juno. I don't know if she'll win yet, but I think she has a great chance. I think Ellen Page and maybe even Jennifer Garner could get nominated as well.

Finally, I hope this is the year that Christian Bale is nominated, but I'm guessing that in the usual young and/or newcomer Best Actor spot, Emile Hirsch will be there instead of Bale.

[Binky]

I wonder if the cast of 3:10 to Yuma will get any nods. Crowe also has American Gangster, but I don't think Bale has anything. I would really like to see Ben Foster nail a Supporting Actor nomination, because despite the very strong ensemble, he really stood out.

I'm at a loss for actresses. Why are there never any good female roles?

[Deleted]

Thanks Brookie for opening this ! Woohoo!

Every year I swear I'm not going to get into it but here I am, checking the various sites to see who might be a contender .

binky said:

I'm at a loss for actresses. Why are there never any good female roles?

There are but I have to say that in the past few years the group of contenders for the actor categories (both lead and supporting) have been way more crowded than those of the actresses. I don't know. I think there are good female roles but I generally think that the Academy is pretty sexist and if those good roles aren't played by hot young actresses then they don't exist to them. They love to recognize older actors and young actresses (with this year's exception Helen Mirren) but often ignore young actors and older actresses. Youngest actor to win in the lead category was a 29-year old Adrien brody! I'm pretty sure that youngest winner in the actress category was younger than that!


Anyway, personal actor/actress favourite I'm rooting for to get a nom this year: James McAvoy (Atonement) and Keri Russell (Waitress). I've probably just jinxed them . Oh and I definitely think that Diablo Cody and Juno will get more than one nom/award!


Next year's Oscar host seems to be Jon Stewart, right?

[Binky]

Yup, Stewart's the host.

I completely forgot about Waitress. Is it eligible? Feels like it came out forever ago. It's not the kind of role the Academy goes for, at all, but Keri Russell was fabulous in that. I'd love for it to get some kind of recognition.

[Deleted]

Diablo Cody is totally getting nominated.

[Matilda]

binky said:

I wonder if the cast of 3:10 to Yuma will get any nods. Crowe also has American Gangster, but I don't think Bale has anything. I would really like to see Ben Foster nail a Supporting Actor nomination, because despite the very strong ensemble, he really stood out.

I'm at a loss for actresses. Why are there never any good female roles?

I know what you mean, actresses in Hollywood often seem to have quite insignificant roles. The actresses that the Oscar predicting sites seem to think are getting nominated are Julie Christie, Marion Cotillard and Keira Knightley. There's also quite a bit of talk about Angelina Jolie getting nominated. As for Supporting Actress, it seems to be all about Cate Blanchett (in I'm Not There).

[scarlet]

foiegras said:

Diablo Cody is totally getting nominated.

I really think there's a strong possibility of this. The buzz on this movie is huge!

For actor, I think Tom Hanks will also get another nomination for "Charlie Wilson's War," and possibly Denzel for "American Gangster."

[viridian]

The actor's category is so crowded: Ben Foster definitely deserves a nomination for 3:10 to Yuma, and Christian Bale, too. They might get squeezed out by other movies, though - there isn't a huge amount of buzz for In the Valley of Elah, but Tommy Lee Jones's performance has gotten great reviews and he'll probably get a nomination. Casey Affleck is also being praised for Gone, Baby, Gone. Based on the advance reviews, Javier Bardem will be nominated for No Country for Old Men; Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood, since he's always an Oscar favorite; and then Denzel Washington and/or Russell Crowe.

There's so few strong women's roles that anyone has a chance at a nomination, I think. Definitely Cate Blanchett, Marion Cotillard and Keira Knightley - beyond that? I don't know, maybe Keri Russell for Waitress and Jennifer Jason-Leigh and/or Nicole Kidman in Margot at the Wedding.

I don't know whether it'll happen, but I hope Sunshine is nominated for effects. The story got a bit uneven towards the end, but the film looked beautiful.

[amara]

I think Best Actress is actually pretty full. It's definitely not like last year where it was the same 5 actresses nominated every single time. This year I'd say in Tier 1, you'd have

Julie Christie (Away From Her)
Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)
Keira Knightley (Atonement)
Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Ellen Page (Juno)
Laura Linney (The Savages)
Nicole Kidman (Margot At the Wedding)

and then with lesser odds, but still with a shot

Cate Blanchett (The Golden Age)
Halle Berry (Things We Lost In the Fire)
Jodie Foster (The Brave One)
Helena Bonham Carter (Sweeney Todd, if she goes Lead)
Keri Russell (Waitress)
Amy Adams (Enchanted)

There's quite a few contenders in there. It's not nearly as easy to call as last year's noms.