Amy Adams' buzz for
Enchanted is getting stronger; I've been hearing about for quite a while and now that the movie opened so strong in the US I guess she at least got the GG Musical/Comedy Actress award in the bag. Since Best Actress again doesn't seem that strong this year I think she definitely has a good shot at getting into the Oscar noms (again). And seeing that the campaign for Angelina is kicking in I'll say Go Amy!
It's a strange coincidence that right after reading this post, I found out on an Oscar prognosticating board that Cate Blanchett is now being campaigned as a lead for
I'm Not There. It doesn't mean that the Academy will necessarily nominate her in leading, but it seems like such a weak year in the Best Actress race, sort of like last year, because a lot of potential nominees haven't lived up to their initial hype, that she could potentially sneak in. Right now I would only be comfortable with predicting that Julie Christie to be nominated for Best Actress. Maybe Marion Cotillard, but to me she feels more vulnerable than Christie.
My Predictions (In Order of Likelihood)
1. Julie Christie
2. Marion Cotillard - I've had Christie on my short list all year, but I wasn't sure about Cotillard. I thought she might be forgotten about by Oscar time, but it seems like a lot of Oscar bait movies especially with leading female roles haven't done all that well like predicted. I know it happens every year, but this year seems really topsy-turvy because two performances from early in the year have been able to hang around this long. Of course, I like it a lot better than when it's really predictable like when everyone knows whose going to win like last year, but then again, maybe when all the critic awards start coming out, it could be very predictable again, if one particular person or movie starts winning all or most of the awards.
3. Laura Linney - First, I heard bad things about
The Savages like that it wouldn't appeal to Oscar voters, but now it's nothing but great things. So I'm not 100% confident yet, but if she gets in, I feel this is her year because she has so little competition. Christie and Cotillard will probably get nominated, but no way are they winning. If Angelina gets in, I think that will be award enough since they might think she has a lot of crap to make up for since
Girl, Interrupted, and Adams, Page, and Knightley might be considered too young.
4. Keira Knightley - I'm not as confident as I am about her as I was before because
Atonement seems to have been forgotten about. She's right back in it though if the movie starts picking up critic awards. She would do better in supporting where I think she has a better chance to win, but that won't happen because her other co-stars are going supporting.
5. Amy Adams - I wasn't sold on her before especially with being a Disney film, but with a strong opening and a previous nomination for
Junebug, I think that she has a great shot now.
Outside Looking in:
6. Angelina Jolie - I thought she had no chance because her movie came out in the summer, and I thought by Oscar season her performance would be forgotten, but actresses like Jodie Foster, Halle Berry, Nicole Kidman, and Cate Blanchett for
The Golden Age didn't fare well in the best actress race this year.
7. Ellen Page - I think it depends on
Juno. I think it's a lock for Original Screenplay, but I don't know about Best Picture. Plus, she's very young, and now it seems like Amy Adams will likely win the Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical, if Marion Cotillard goes dramatic. Even if Cotillard does go the musical route, I think Adams still has a good chance since she's a star on the rise, and the Globes have been known to be very influenced by celebrity.
8. Helena Bonham Carter - I don't know about her at all. So far I think she's in, but that could easily change depending on how good/great
Sweeney Todd actually turns out to be. Plus, Tim Burton movies don't exactly have a great track record with the Oscars. That could change, but I heard all of that talk before with
Big Fish, and how Ewan McGregor was sure to get an Oscar nomination and how the Academy just loved the movie during screenings.
Anyhow, I think besides the top three, if
The Savages buzz is actually true, now that Blanchett doesn't have to compete against herself with
The Golden Age, it might be possible that she could sneak because there's still a lot of competition for the last two spots that anyone of the actresses on my list could get in or a totally new person could just step in at this time. (Too bad,
Revolutionary Road wasn't being released this year because I have a feeling that Kate Winslet could have pulled off a Hilary Swank because although there seem to be a lot of potential candidates, I don't feel like there's a definite winner yet unless
The Savages does live up to the hype around it now.) As for Blanchett though, I see where the Weinsteins might be going with it since a Best Actress nomination is likely to pull in more money, and because they might hope that Samantha Morton has more of a chance for
Control that way, but I think it's more than likely that even if they switch the campaign now that Blanchett will still be nominated in the supporting category.
