And The Oscar Goes To......

[Atreides]

And the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay goes to Diablo Cody!!!

For Best Visual Effects, Transformers is a lock to win.

I just came back from seeing Into the Wild (very good film but a bit long and meandering at times). I can see Emile Hirsch getting the Young Actor Breakout Nomination for Best Actor and Hal Holbrook with a good chance at Best Supporting Actor for this year's designated Old Guy Getting a Nom.

[Deleted]

I'm so glad I don't have to worry about Kate's Oscar chances this year. But I'll be back there next year after the new Kate/Leo film will be released .

As for Best Actress...I think Marion Cotillard is definitely in, she's this year's foreign actress getting an acting nom. If it's a weak year then Angelina has a chance and I guess Keira as well. Speaking of Keira, I think that Atonement might go the Cold Mountain way awards-wise. And I'd be fine with that if that means a nom for James McAvoy (back then Jude was nominated for CM but Nicole wasn't). Cate of course has agood chance of a BA nom but it doesn't seem as if the film has been received very well. Shouldn't hurt her chances too much though (she's Cate Blanchett after all). As I said before I'm hoping for a Keri Russell nom but I guess her slot could also go to Ellen Paige if things go as well as predicted for Juno. .

Men's side is (once again) way too crowded at the moment and I haven't even thought about the Supporting categories.

[canuckcutie]

I've seen Atonement and I actually thought James Mcavoy was more oscar worthy in The Last King of Scotland and he got completely ignored for that. I think he and Keira may stand a shot in the supporting categories as they really aren't in the movie that much and I think Keira's chances of a nom are higher than James'.

I've seen Elizabeth and other than costumes, set, cinematography I think it'll be ignored.

I'd love to see Ellen Page get a nom for Juno and Ryan Gosling get one for Lars as I think both were fantastic in those but small movies can slip through the cracks unless they get a lot of buzz & studio push. It all hinges on whether the studios have someone higher profile that they decide to focus on.

[Deleted]

I think that if Johnny Depp manages to get nominated again (for Sweeney Todd) he might even win. He's getting close to the "due-factor". Not for me; I do love him but I don't want to see Johnny Depp with an Oscar statue. Something's not right about that image.

And I believe they'll definitely push Keira and James as Lead. Not being much in the movie wouldn't matter here. Techincally speaking you could say that Forest Withaker was Supporting in LKoS because he wasn't nearly as much in that movie as James. But he won for Lead. Reese was classified as Lead in a role that was clearly supporting to Joaquin's Johnny Cash. Then again, Jennifer Connelly won in Supporting for playing a similar role (wife of the central male lead in a bio-pic). There will always be categories mix-ups because the studios usually push the bigger names of a film as lead. Or if it's someone that might not stand a chance in the Lead category they'll put them in Supporting (if it's a weak year) in order to secure a nom for a role that's actually Lead.

It'll be interesting to see how the campaigns go for 3:10 to Yuma and Jesse James. Two movies with two male lead roles. Should be interesting.

[twodollars]

solly79 said:

It'll be interesting to see how the campaigns go for 3:10 to Yuma and Jesse James. Two movies with two male lead roles. Should be interesting.

I think Russell will go lead in 3:10 to Yuma so he can campaign as supporting in American Gangster.

And Affleck will go supporting in Jesse James so he can campaign as lead in Gone, Baby, Gone.

[diablocody]

(plugs ears) LA LA LA I CAN'T HEAR YOU.

I say Cronenberg and Penn are gonna win the big ones. Also, I know Golden Globes talk is secondary, but the HFPA loves musicals and I think Sweeney Todd is going to be big.

[tamaradixon]

I'll say There Will Be Blood for best pic, director and actor.

[huntergrayson]

Hey, I *love* the Globes, diablo - most years they don't even have a musical in the comedy/musical category, but there's three contenders this year - Sweeney Todd, Once and Across the Universe.

I'd love to see Ellen Page get a nom for Juno and Ryan Gosling get one for Lars as I think both were fantastic in those but small movies can slip through the cracks unless they get a lot of buzz & studio push. It all hinges on whether the studios have someone higher profile that they decide to focus on.

The Academy allegedly turned down a screening of Lars, which would essentially mean they're not considering Gosling. Dunno if it's a subject matter thing or what. On the other hand, Variety's best actress predictions are here and Ellen Page is on there!

I'll have to find it, but Nikki Finke (or someone?) had an article recently about how Russell Crowe was apparently *pissed* at the studio's handling of 3:10 because he thought that they were releasing it too early for Oscar consideration. But he also has American Gangster, which will probably get a lot of nominations.

There's a crapload of Iraq-themed movies. Haggis's In the Valley of Elah kinda fizzled out (Tommy Lee's supposed to be fantastic in it, though.) De Palma might get director for Redacted - he won in Venice.

[amara]

tamaradixon said:

I'll say There Will Be Blood for best pic, director and actor.

I can definitely see this. There's a lot of buzz about Atonement, but I don't know. I can see the Academy preferring to award a name, someone who they'd consider due, like P.T. Anderson or the Coen Bros. over Joe Wright.

For actress, I think Christie and Cotillard are the locks, with Page, Knightley, Jolie, Linney battling for the other 3 slots. I think Blanchett, Berry, and Kidman are all out.

[canuckcutie]

I don't think James Mcavoy has a hope in hell of getting a nom in the lead category - especially not when you have names like Russell, Denzel, Johnny & Daniel Day Lewis in possible contention. You also have past winners/nominees like George Clooney & Javier Bardem as possibles in the lead category. Oh and don't forget Viggo in Eastern Promises. I just don't think his role in Atonement was large enough or worthy enough - IMO He was good but he didn't stand out. He had a few good scenes at war but nothing that would get him a nom. The lead actor category is always more competitive than the female one so Keira has a far greater chance of getting a lead actress nom than James does in the lead actor category.