And The Oscar Goes To......

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Awww, all these awards for Casey Affleck make me really happy but for some reason I don't think they'll mean Oscar success for him this year. Isn't he way too young and good looking to receive an acting award from the Academy? I bet some Hollywood veteran wins again here...

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I don't know about too young. Affleck's 32. Several lead actors have won before age 35 (Brando, Dreyfuss, Brody, Cage, Gable, DD-L). If he's nominated as Supporting, there's a long list of younger winners there as well (Del Toro, Lemmon, De Niro, Timothy Hutton, Gooding, Denzel). There are/were some cute faces amongst those guys. I think the idea of having a pair of brother both win Oscars will be the feel-good story that Academy voters eat up with a spoon. He could take it.

[huntergrayson]

Still haven't seen it, but isn't his performance almost considered the real lead of the film by some?

Also, if There Will Be Blood wins, I'm gonna so laugh that all the Iraq movies bombed while Best Picture goes to a film (sorta) about how one man's unrestrained lust for oil and money lead to violence and spiritual/moral decay.

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...and wouldn't that be the perfect way for those dirty Hollywood liberals to make a comment on the war(s)?

[aibohphobia]

huntergrayson said:

Still haven't seen it, but isn't his performance almost considered the real lead of the film by some?

Yes, he is, and there's a lot of arguing going on, on another board about the category fraud involved. There's been a lot of category fraud over the years especially with children, but sometimes it will occassionally backfire like it did with Scarlett Johannson and Lost in Translation where she was campaigned for supporting but clearly leading. I guess I'm of the same mind like a lot of people at that particular board where I'm fine with a small performance being able to compete for lead actor/actress like Anthony Hopkins in SotL, but think that it's extremely unfair for a leading performance to compete with true supporting performances.

Also, if There Will Be Blood wins, I'm gonna so laugh that all the Iraq movies bombed while Best Picture goes to a film (sorta) about how one man's unrestrained lust for oil and money lead to violence and spiritual/moral decay.

I really have to see this, but of course, it's not even opened here yet. I did think that No Country had the Best Picture award pretty much all sewn up about a month ago with maybe some competition from Sweeney Todd, Juno, and Atonement, but still prevailing in the end. I thought that There Will Be Blood opened too late and that No Country was going to overshadow it for the rest of award season, but it looks like a closer race than I believed. Plus, now maybe it was smart of There Will Be Blood to do the same thing that M$B did in order to stay fresher in people's minds.

At this point, I don't know about best picture until after the Globes and the guild awards because it could still go Atonement if No Country and TWBB split votes with each other. I've also been reading a lot of buzz about Juno being quite popular with voters, and it is also likely to benefit from those two dark movies potentially splitting votes. However, I can easily see Jason Reitman being the lone director whose film is nominated for Best Picture that gets snubbed in the Best Director category (I'm guessing Sidney Lumet is going to grab that spot), and then his film will have an uphill battle to win Best Picture.

Finally, I mentioned Sweeney Todd earlier in this post, and I guess it's basically just like Big Fish was in that everyone was raving about how much Oscar voters would like it, and that it was time for Tim Burton and his movie to win there. It seems dead in the water now not even garnering any major pre-BAFTA nods. Johnny Depp could be nominated, and I guess there's an outside chance that Helena Bonham Carter could too, but it looks like the leading actor award is Daniel Day-Lewis's too lose. Clooney might win the SAG because he didn't for Syriana, and DDL already has one, but there's no way that Clooney is going to win another Oscar so soon for Michael Clayton.

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Although I have not seen Lars and the Real Girl (I intend to... but it has been a busy time for me movie-wise and LATRG was pushed down on the list by other films) and I cannot truly say whether or not Gosling deserves a second nomination, I do feel like he is one of the recurring names on critics lists that has the greatest potential to be shut out come Oscar-time. Although he is a great actor with a previous nom (I think the Academy loves to nominate past nominees as a way of showing that they got it right the first time around) his movie seems to be a little on the strange side for a lone acting nod in such a packed category with only two performances in the "lock" position (in my estimation Day Lewis and Clooney) and a ton of actors in racing for the next three slots. I seriously have no clue who the top five will be and I usually feel pretty confident about the Best Actor nominees.

I also wonder if the Academy is going to go as crazy for Into the Wild as the SAG did. I mean, Penn is a respected Oscar winner but he also comes across as pretty much a jerk where awards are concerned. I wonder if that might hurt his film's chances in such a packed year where it would seem that every vote counts.

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thursdaynext said:

Although I have not seen Lars and the Real Girl (I intend to... but it has been a busy time for me movie-wise and LATRG was pushed down on the list by other films) and I cannot truly say whether or not Gosling deserves a second nomination, I do feel like he is one of the recurring names on critics lists that has the greatest potential to be shut out come Oscar-time. Although he is a great actor with a previous nom (I think the Academy loves to nominate past nominees as a way of showing that they got it right the first time around) his movie seems to be a little on the strange side for a lone acting nod in such a packed category with only two performances in the "lock" position (in my estimation Day Lewis and Clooney) and a ton of actors in racing for the next three slots. I seriously have no clue who the top five will be and I usually feel pretty confident about the Best Actor nominees.

Yeah I really wonder what'll happen with Gosling. I still think that either him, Hirsch or McAvoy will get in but not all three of them, not even two IMO. Line-up so far may be Day-Lewis, Clooney, Depp, Gosling/McAvoy/Hirsch, Mortensen.
And I see some upset in Best Actress happening, as in that Ellen will win for Juno. I know that Julie Christie has won tons of critics awards so far but for some strange reason I don't see her winning. No idea why .

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solly79 said:

I know that Julie Christie has won tons of critics awards so far but for some strange reason I don't see her winning. No idea why .

I feel the same way, and I think it's because so few people have seen Away From Her. And it came out so long ago that most people have forgotten about it. I don't know a single other person other than me who has even heard of it let alone seen it.

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For some reason, I think that Jennifer Garner will be a surprise Supporting Actress nominee. I think Roger Ebert's praise of her in his top ten list really makes you realize how key she is to Juno's overall success. I can see Juno playing like gangbusters on the small screen (as opposed to something like Atonement where there are a lot of potential supporting actress nominees - Soairse Ronan, Romola Garai and Vanessa Redgrave who might be overlooked) and that helping put her over the top. Plus, she is really good in what could have been a two-dimensional role.

[canuckcutie]

In Lieu of an awards show

"RECIPIENTS OF “THE 65th ANNUAL GOLDEN GLOBE AWARDS”
TO BE ANNOUNCED AT BEVERLY HILTON PRESS CONFERENCE ON JANUARY 13thHOLLYWOOD, CA, January 7, 2008 – The Hollywood Foreign Press Association today announced that the recipients of Golden Globe Awards in 25 categories will be revealed during an hour-long HFPA press conference at The Beverly Hilton to be covered live by NBC News beginning at 6:00 pm PST on January 13. “The 65th Annual Golden Globe Awards” NBC telecast and champagne dinner in The Beverly Hilton’s International Ballroom is officially cancelled."

It fills me with glee that Rumer Willis doesn't get to be Miss Golden Globe this year. However as an award show lover I am desperately hoping that they will come to a resolution before the oscars although at this point it isn't looking likely.