Post by aibohphobia on Oct 22, 2009 8:21:58 GMT -4
Oct 22, 2009 3:26:21 GMT -4 @solly79 said:
I heard that too and I think the Academy falls, more often than not, for safe and formulaic films (even though they sometimes don't look like it at first - like M$B, Crash, A Beautiful Mind). Which is why I still believe that Hilary and Amelia are going to sneak in.
True, but at least those movies even Crash had warm critical reception, and with Crash, Lion's Gate sent out screeners to everyone. I don't think Fox is going to spend that much money on Amelia since it's critical reception is pretty bad right now even worse than The Reader's. It depends on how it does at the box office, and if the Metacritic scores go up significantly as more critics get to see it. More importantly, Swank certainly isn't going to win again, so a nomination for Best Actress probably won't due that much to help once it's out on DVD, and Best Picture seems unattainable even with 10 spots because there are other biopics that are still in the running. Also, with Kathryn Bigelow, Lone Scherfig, and Jane Campion still have a better chance of getting in than Mira Nair, whose movies have never really been Academy favorites, and with that category at most they'll probably only nominate 1 to 2 women possibly for Best Director this year.
Plus, with those movies, there was also another reason why they won. With A Beautiful Mind, it was because Ron Howard was due, and Russell Crowe was on a hot streak at that time. It also was a good alternative to awarding LOTR too early.
Then, since they waited to award the last LOTR movie that meant that Mystic River and Clint Eastwood got passed over, and since The Aviator wasn't what they were going to honor Martin Scorcese with, Million Dollar Baby won. Plus, Morgan Freeman had the "due" factor.
Of course, Crash was seen as the alternative to those that didn't want to honor Brokeback Mountain. Plus, it really helped that it was set in LA, and had a large ensemble cast, and was a "message movie."
Finally, even The Reader which didn't do that well critically was helped a lot because of Syndey Pollack's and Anthony Minghella's involvement in producing the film, and because it was finally time for Kate Winslet to win.