And The Oscar Goes To......

[Deleted]

Gabourey Sidibe should win, but her problem is Carey Mulligan, so they'll cancel each other out. Meryl and Helen will also cancel each other out, so Sandra can receive her Oscar. Ratings, baby, ratings.

I was surprised that Julianne Moore didn't receive a Supporting Actress nod for A Single Man. There was talk that she would.

[hushhush]

Nedsdag, that's *exactly* what will happen. Sandra pretty much wins by process of elimination.

I expected Invictus to land in the Best Picture pool even though it wasn't that great, either. It's got the acting chops, historical/political awareness, inspiring sports angle, and Clint Eastwood factor going for it.

The Up nomination for Best Picture??? If they were going to nominate a Pixar film for Best Pic it should have been Finding Nemo years ago. Up was far from a classic and one of the weaker Pixar films out of the bunch.

[twodollars]

Feb 2, 2010 10:04:14 GMT -4 neeley said:

I hope somewhere in Paris tonight Melanie Laurent and Marion Cotillard are getting drunk on expensive champagne and cursing Harvey Weinstein for campaigning them in lead. They would have had at least a shot in supporting (especially over Cruz).

I thought Cruz was better than both Cotillard and Laurent personally.

And I am just not getting the Inglorious Bastards love. I thought the movie was a silly, little movie. The only one who impressed me in the whole movie was Diane Kruger.

I am hoping for Kathryn Bigelow win in best director, Sandra for best actress and would be happy with Renner, Bridges or Clooney winning best actor. I've been a Renner fan since his guest appearance on Angel. And Bridges should have won an Oscar for Fearless years ago, so he is overdue.

Doesn't it seem like the nominations are lacking in diversity? Out of the 10 films nominated for best picture, only one of them has a minority in a lead role. That is depressing.

[hushhush]

It seems like an easy year for predicting the lead acting categories. I really don't see how Sandra B. and Jeff Bridges can lose.

[Deleted]

I thought Inglorious Basterds was an OK movie, but I wasn't blown away by it. In fact, was Christoph Waltz's Nazi more memorable than Ralph Fiennes' Goeth in Schindler's List?

[normadesmond]

Feb 2, 2010 13:21:17 GMT -4 @nedsdag said:

Gabourey Sidibe should win, but her problem is Carey Mulligan, so they'll cancel each other out.

I don't think that's her problem. It really doesn't matter who is nominated, her competition could've been Paris Hilton and Lindsay Lohan and she still wouldn't get it... once they have their hearts set on rewarding a particular star, nobody else matters. It didn't matter who else was nominated the year Al Pacino won. And his actual (scenery-chewing) performance in Scent of a Woman was also irrelevant. All that mattered was that it was "Al's time."

Meryl and Helen will also cancel each other out, so Sandra can receive her Oscar. Ratings, baby, ratings.

I wouldn't rule out Meryl completely. I don't think this "cancelling out" thing really happens except when two people are nominated for the same film (e.g. Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga will probably cancel each other out.) I don't think they group older women or younger women together in their mind like that. If anything, Carey and Sandra would be the "pair off" for being the two "babes" in the category, regardless of age difference.

I was surprised that Julianne Moore didn't receive a Supporting Actress nod for A Single Man. There was talk that she would.

Apparently the SAG shortlist and the Oscar shortlist is completely identical except for Maggie Gyllenhaal replacing Julianne Moore. The other 19 acting nominees are identical! Kind of takes away any real excitement. I think the creation of the SAG awards did more to take away the aura of prestige and anticipation surrounding the Oscars than any other factor. How excited can you get when the SAG nominees and winners take away the element of surprise? Since SAG winners are announced before the Oscars are even nominated, the whole thing now feels like an afterthought.

[Deleted]

Feb 2, 2010 14:28:07 GMT -4 twodollars said:

And I am just not getting the Inglorious Bastards love. I thought the movie was a silly, little movie. The only one who impressed me in the whole movie was Diane Kruger.

ITA about Inglorious Basterds. I was so dissapointed in it. I also agree that Diane Kruger was great.

[Baby Fish Mouth]

I don't see much suspense in any of the acting categories. They might as well give the Oscar to Bridges, Waltz and Mo'Nique right now. There might be a race between Bullock and Streep, but even there it's pretty safe to say Bullock will win.

The thought of The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds losing out to James Cameron's crappy writing is depressing. Keeping my fingers crossed for an upset.

[Deleted]

The good news so far is that everyone seems to want Kathryn Bigelow to win, even the other directing nominees. They were all gushing about her at the DGA's the other night. I think it's hers to lose.

And as far as Best Picture goes, a film critic pointed out a of couple years ago that almost every single time the movie that wins for Film Editing wins Best Picture. It was even true for Crash. So by that logic, Best Picture will go to Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, or Precious. I think The Hurt Locker actually does have a decent shot at the big win, it's won all the guild awards so far and tied with Avatar for the most nominations. It also has an acting nod with Jeremy Renner, which gives it a bit of a leg up. Actors are the largest voting block in the Academy and I get the sense that they're not crazy about supporting a movie that takes the film industry one step closer to making them obsolete.

I'm kind of shocked that A Serious Man got a Best Picture nod. I was expecting Screenplay, but not Best Picture. Hardly anyone saw it.

[Mugsy]

What's so great about The Hurt Locker? It's a war movie, right? Why is it so fantastic compared to the myriad of previous war movies? I ask because it's like it's *the* underdog movie to root for and it's not playing anywhere near me, nor has anyone I know seen it.

I also don't buy the cancelling each other out theory re: best actress. I don't think any voter sits there with their ballot and thinks, "Well, I want to give it to a young actress, so Carey it is" while their counterpart is thinking the same thing and checking off Gabourey. Why would they have "young" or "old" as their exclusive criteria for choosing someone?

I do agree that it can happen when two actresses are nominated in the same category for the same movie - someone really loves the movie and all the performances, but they can only check one box.

And why is everyone so sure that Gabourey won't get it; what is this based on? (And I don't mean the GGs and SAGs.) It's like, well, it definitely won't go to her, so it's between SB and MS. Why not Gabourey if her performance was so good?