Looking forward to Golden Globe noms on Thursday as, although they kind of sucked in the past years, that should narrow the groups in certain categories down to a few who really do have a shot at getting Oscar noms.
I can't believe the GG nominations are going to be this Thursday. I really don't like the move up of the Oscars to February even though I know they'll never change it back to March because of their contract with ABC and sweeps month being February. At first, I thought it would lead to more unpredictability since it seemed that most of the Oscar movies came out in December which was ridiculous because I like them spread over the year. However, it seems to have lead to more predictability since a lot of the critics and definitely all the other award precursors all try to guess what will win the Oscar and reward that person or movie. So it seems like one person or movie always gains a big lead on all the other nominees with all the precursors that he/she/it wins that there's no way that Oscar will go with anything else. I thought this year would be different because everything seems so unpredictable now, but I already predict that Javier Bardem will likely pull the triple threat (Globe, SAG, Oscar). Not that he doesn't deserve it, but it's like the year Renee Zellweger was nominated for
Cold Mountain. I thought she was fine, but I liked all the other nominees better, but she swept all the awards, and I got a feeling that a little part of it was due to the fact that the precursor awards thought she'd win the Oscar and wanted to have the same result as the Oscars.
I'm not sure if Linney is a comedy or a drama. Plus, I'm getting scared since she missed out on all these other precursors so far that she might not even be nominated now. I think she will at least at the Globes because there's more spots, but who knows. I can't think of a fifth person to nominate though. Halle Berry? Nicole Kidman? They do love Nicole, but if they nominate her, I think it will be for supporting actress.
I agree that at least one spot will be for the newcomer/younger actor. If there's only one spot, Hirsch might have the edge because his movie will likely be up for other awards too, and because he lost twenty pounds for the role. On the other hand, they didn't nominate Ryan Gosling last time, so they might want to do so now. It's tough to call the fifth spot right now. I would say a veteran like Tommy Lee Jones (if he doesn't cancel himself out with his two leading roles) or Frank Langella since he's picked up some critic awards now. Or perhaps Josh Brolin will get the Matt Dillon, you've been around a long time nomination especially if they really love
No Country.
BActress Musical/Comedy: Page, Heigl, Cotillard, Adams, Blonsky
I agree with this except of Carter goes leading then I would replace Blonsky with her. I think Cotillard has been submitted into Musical/Comedy, but I hope she doesn't win though because I think it's a bit of dishonesty for dramatic biopics that happen to be about musicians get the leg up by submitting being submitted into the Musical/Comedy, even though it doesn't really fit the definition of being a musical even if there is singing involved. I would really love to see Keri Russell for
Waitress get in here, but unless they go six nominees, I don't see them going for her since
Hairspray will likely be nominated for Best Musical/Comedy.
I think with the Globes, it's possible he could be nominated twice in the same category. I think I remember an actor being nominated more than once in the same category. If not, Jack Nicholson is definitely in because they love him, and possibly Morgan Freeman, depending on if they're actively campaigning him for supporting or not. To fill out the category, maybe Steve Carrell for
Dan in Real Life and sadly John Travolta for
Hairspray because the Globes seem to love him for some reason.
If Carter goes supporting, I think she's in. (No one seems to know what category she'll be in yet.) I can imagine they'll go six nominees for some reason because I see Kidman getting in because they love her, and another person, probably Tilda Swinton. If they really love
No Country, I think Kelly McDonald could get in over Kidman, if they do the six nominee thing because she's been nominated for the Globes before, and they might not love Kidman that much. (Of course,
The Golden Compass is the number one movie right now, so who knows.)
I think Revolta will go lead because that's what they did with Catherine Zeta-Jones, and because I can't think of any other potential male musical/comedy nominees now besides Depp, Nicholson, and probably Rogen. I also think Tom Wilkinson is in, and hopefully Max Von Sydow. (He's pretty much been overlooked so far, so I'm not going to hold my breath.) So they could go with a newcomer like Ben Foster or Josh Brolin could wind up here for
American Gangster. (I think he was he announced who Miss Golden Globe would be for this year since I remember seeing a picture of him and Rumer Willis together, and the Foreign Press loves to be sucked up to.)
Yes, normally I think Russell Crowe would be nominated because they love him too, but apparently he's going leading for
3:10 to Yuma and
American Gangster, so I see him canceling himself out even if this group does let an actor be nominated twice in the same category, they won't do that for Best Drama because they want to mirror the Oscars too much. Plus, all the buzz around
American Gangster has faded now, and sadly
3:10 to Yuma hasn't been able to re-energize it's buzz. I really wish Christian Bale had more of a chance for something since he lost weight like Hirsch did, and because I think it's past time for him to finally breakthrough. It's a shame because on paper, it seems like he has a great chance to get that first Oscar nomination, but it just hasn't panned out so far.
ETA: Here's Tom O'Neil's GG predictions,
GG Predictions I guess he has a better sense of what the GG likes than I would, but he does let his biases affect his predictions too like he'll always go on and on about his favorite(s), and if that's snubbed, it seems that he'll blame it on the voters being sexist, racist, or biased in another way. It goes the opposite way too a lot though because when he hates something, he has a vendetta against it forever, and blames people for liking it because they're sheep, stupid, or whatever.
As for his predictions, I totally forgot about John C. Reilly in the Musical/Drama category, and I guess
Lars and the Real Girl is being submitted there which means Gosling is in and that probably frees up one space in the drama category now. (I hope it goes to Christian Bale, but I know it probably won't.) Finally, I guess Revolta really is going supporing. Ugh, I hate that he'll probably take away a nomination which could have went to someone more deserving like Von Sydow.
